Department of Molecular Medicine and Surgery, Upper Gastrointestinal Research, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Int J Cancer. 2011 Jul 15;129(2):513-6. doi: 10.1002/ijc.25701. Epub 2010 Nov 16.
Since 1970, the incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma has increased rapidly in Western populations, whereas the incidences of gastric cardia and gastric non-cardia adenocarcinoma have increased moderately and declined, respectively. The Swedish Cancer Register and Total Population Register provided opportunities for a valid update of incidence trends of these tumors including the year 2008. Joinpoint regression was used to assess any shifts in trends with calendar time. The esophageal adenocarcinoma incidence reached a peak in 2005, and then showed a decrease. During the period 2001-2008, the joinpoint regression analysis indicates a virtually stable incidence (annual percentage increase 1.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] -2.7 to 5.1). The cardia adenocarcinoma incidence has slightly decreased after 1990 (annual percentage decrease -1.0, 95% CI -1.6 to -0.3). The decreasing incidence of gastric non-cardia adenocarcinoma has continued steadily during recent years (annual percentage decrease -4.9 (95% CI -5.2 to -4.7). Thus, an encouraging break in the rising incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma has been seen in Sweden since 2005, whereas the corresponding incidences of gastric cardia and non-cardia adenocarcinoma have been stable and decreasing, respectively.
自 1970 年以来,食管腺癌在西方人群中的发病率迅速上升,而贲门和胃非贲门腺癌的发病率则分别适度上升和下降。瑞典癌症登记处和总人口登记处为有效更新这些肿瘤的发病率趋势提供了机会,包括 2008 年的数据。Joinpoint 回归用于评估随时间变化的趋势是否存在变化。食管腺癌的发病率在 2005 年达到峰值,然后呈下降趋势。在 2001-2008 年期间,Joinpoint 回归分析表明发病率几乎保持稳定(年增长率为 1.1%,95%置信区间[CI]为-2.7%至 5.1%)。贲门腺癌的发病率在 1990 年后略有下降(年下降率为-1.0%,95%CI 为-1.6%至-0.3%)。近年来,胃非贲门腺癌的发病率持续稳步下降(年下降率为-4.9%(95%CI 为-5.2%至-4.7%)。因此,自 2005 年以来,瑞典食管腺癌的发病率上升趋势出现了令人鼓舞的转折,而贲门和胃非贲门腺癌的发病率则分别保持稳定和下降。