Identifying mild cognitive impairment (MCI) subjects who will convert to clinical Alzheimer's disease (AD) is important for therapeutic decisions, patient counselling and clinical trials. Hippocampal volume and rate of atrophy predict clinical decline at the MCI stage and progression to AD. In this paper, we create p-maps from the differences in the shape of the hippocampus between 60 normal controls and 60 AD subjects using statistical shape models, and generate different regions of interest (ROI) by thresholding the p-maps at different significance levels. We demonstrate increased statistical power to classify 86 MCI converters and 128 MCI stable subjects using the hippocampal atrophy rates calculated by the boundary shift integral within these ROIs.