Proximate determinants of fertility in Nigeria.

Data from the 1981-82 Nigeria Fertility Survey (NFS) are used to identify the key proximate determinants of fertility in Nigeria. The patterns of their individual and collective effects are analyzed in a search for possible sources of fertility change. Exposure to the risk of childbearing through first marriage is found to be the most important proximate determinant of Nigerian fertility. Subsequent to marriage, fertility is determined mainly by breastfeeding and postpartum sexual abstinence. Where fertility shows significant socioeconomic variations, there are equally identifiable patterns of the impact of the proximate determinants which explain these differentials to a large extent. On a national scale, the observed patterns of the impact of the measured proximate determinants do not appear to suggest that Nigerian fertility is soon to experience a large decline.