Gentilini M, Chieze F
Département des maladies infectieuses et tropicales et de santé publique, Unité INSERN 313, Groupe hospitalier Pitié-Salpêtrière, Paris.
Bull Acad Natl Med. 1990 Nov;174(8):1209-19; discussion 1219-21.
The assessment of the socio-economical aspects of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is difficult because of the relative scarcity of information. This study addresses mainly the socio-economic aspects of the AIDS pandemic in the inter-tropical zone of Africa, which, at the moment, constitutes the epicenter of the disease. In the absence of a possible radical treatment, the HIV infection prevalence should range between 25 and 30 million individuals by the year 2000 in the world, and the number of cases of AIDS, between 5 and 6 million, among which 4 to 5 million in the developing world alone. At the current rate, the overmortality rate related to AIDS in Africa is estimated at 0.1%, which should result in a drop by 30% of the Gross National Products advance (GNP). Each case of AIDS in Africa leads to a loss of productivity of 8.8 years. Already, losses caused by AIDS screening and its medical treatment in five countries of Central Africa should exceed the total amount of the foreign assistance received by each country. The estimated economic weight of the AIDS attendance is 15 to 20 times more heavy for a developing country than for an industralized one. Overcoming economically the cost of AIDS is an objective impossible to reach for deprived countries.
由于信息相对匮乏,评估人类免疫缺陷病毒(HIV)感染的社会经济方面存在困难。本研究主要关注非洲热带地区艾滋病流行的社会经济方面,目前该地区是这种疾病的中心。在缺乏可能的根治性治疗方法的情况下,到2000年,全球HIV感染流行率应在2500万至3000万人之间,艾滋病病例数在500万至600万之间,其中仅发展中国家就有400万至500万。按照目前的速度,非洲与艾滋病相关的超额死亡率估计为0.1%,这将导致国民生产总值(GNP)增长下降30%。非洲每一例艾滋病都会导致8.8年的生产力损失。在中非的五个国家,艾滋病筛查及其治疗造成的损失已经超过了每个国家所获得的外国援助总额。对于一个发展中国家来说,艾滋病护理的估计经济负担比工业化国家重15至20倍。对于贫困国家来说,从经济上克服艾滋病的成本是一个无法实现的目标。