Chin J, Lwanga S K
Global Programme on AIDS, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
Bull World Health Organ. 1991;69(4):399-406.
Many HIV/AIDS (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome) models have been developed to help our understanding of the dynamics and interrelationships of the determinants of HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) spread and/or to develop reliable estimates of the eventual extent of such spread. These models range from very simple to very complex. WHO has developed a simple model for short-term projections of AIDS, details of which are presented here along with results obtained using the model to estimate and project AIDS cases for the USA, sub-Saharan Africa, and south/south-east Asia. WHO has also developed, based on the model described in this paper, a computer program (Epi Model), which will enable the user to easily change the values of any of the variables required by the WHO model.
已经开发了许多艾滋病毒/艾滋病（获得性免疫缺陷综合征）模型，以帮助我们理解艾滋病毒（人类免疫缺陷病毒）传播决定因素的动态变化和相互关系，和/或对这种传播的最终范围进行可靠估计。这些模型从非常简单到非常复杂不等。世卫组织已经开发了一个用于艾滋病短期预测的简单模型，此处介绍了该模型的详细信息，以及使用该模型对美国、撒哈拉以南非洲和南亚/东南亚的艾滋病病例进行估计和预测所获得的结果。世卫组织还基于本文所述模型开发了一个计算机程序（Epi Model），用户可以轻松更改世卫组织模型所需的任何变量的值。
