Department of Civil Engineering, National University of Singapore, Singapore.
Risk Anal. 2011 Mar;31(3):382-403. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01503.x. Epub 2010 Oct 4.
Urban road tunnels provide an increasingly cost-effective engineering solution, especially in compact cities like Singapore. For some urban road tunnels, tunnel characteristics such as tunnel configurations, geometries, provisions of tunnel electrical and mechanical systems, traffic volumes, etc. may vary from one section to another. These urban road tunnels that have characterized nonuniform parameters are referred to as nonhomogeneous urban road tunnels. In this study, a novel quantitative risk assessment (QRA) model is proposed for nonhomogeneous urban road tunnels because the existing QRA models for road tunnels are inapplicable to assess the risks in these road tunnels. This model uses a tunnel segmentation principle whereby a nonhomogeneous urban road tunnel is divided into various homogenous sections. Individual risk for road tunnel sections as well as the integrated risk indices for the entire road tunnel is defined. The article then proceeds to develop a new QRA model for each of the homogeneous sections. Compared to the existing QRA models for road tunnels, this section-based model incorporates one additional top event-toxic gases due to traffic congestion-and employs the Poisson regression method to estimate the vehicle accident frequencies of tunnel sections. This article further illustrates an aggregated QRA model for nonhomogeneous urban tunnels by integrating the section-based QRA models. Finally, a case study in Singapore is carried out.
城市道路隧道提供了一种越来越具成本效益的工程解决方案，特别是在新加坡这样的紧凑型城市。对于一些城市道路隧道，隧道的特点，如隧道配置、几何形状、隧道电气和机械系统的规定、交通量等，可能在一个路段到另一个路段有所不同。这些具有不均匀参数的城市道路隧道被称为非均匀城市道路隧道。在本研究中，提出了一种新的非均匀城市道路隧道的定量风险评估（QRA）模型，因为现有的道路隧道 QRA 模型不适用于评估这些道路隧道的风险。该模型采用隧道分段原理，将非均匀城市道路隧道划分为不同的均匀段。定义了道路隧道各段的个体风险以及整个道路隧道的综合风险指标。然后，为每个均匀段开发了一个新的 QRA 模型。与现有的道路隧道 QRA 模型相比，该基于路段的模型增加了一个额外的顶事件-由于交通拥堵而产生的有毒气体，并采用泊松回归方法来估计隧道路段的车辆事故频率。本文进一步通过整合基于路段的 QRA 模型，说明了非均匀城市隧道的综合 QRA 模型。最后，在新加坡进行了案例研究。
