Griffith School of Engineering, Griffith University, QLD 4222, Australia.
Accid Anal Prev. 2013 Jan;50:616-21. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2012.06.010. Epub 2012 Jul 2.
The quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is one of the explicit requirements under the European Union (EU) Directive (2004/54/EC). As part of this, it is essential to be able to estimate the number of fatalities in different accident scenarios. In this paper, a tangible methodology is developed to estimate the number of fatalities caused by toxic gases due to fire in road tunnels by incorporating traffic flow and the spread of fire in tunnels. First, a deterministic queuing model is proposed to calculate the number of people at risk, by taking into account tunnel geometry, traffic flow patterns, and incident response plans for road tunnels. Second, the Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) is used to obtain the temperature and concentrations of CO, CO(2), and O(2). By taking advantage of the additivity of the fractional effective dose (FED) method, fatality rates for different locations in given time periods can be estimated. An illustrative case study is carried out to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed methodology.
定量风险评估（QRA）是欧盟指令（2004/54/EC）的明确要求之一。作为其中的一部分，必须能够估计在不同事故场景下的死亡人数。本文开发了一种切实可行的方法，通过结合交通流量和隧道内火灾的蔓延，来估计由于火灾而导致的有毒气体在公路隧道中造成的死亡人数。首先，提出了一种确定性排队模型，通过考虑隧道几何形状、交通流模式和公路隧道事故应急预案，来计算处于危险中的人数。其次，利用火灾动力学模拟器（FDS）获得 CO、CO(2) 和 O(2) 的温度和浓度。通过利用分数有效剂量（FED）方法的可加性，可以估计在给定时间段内不同位置的死亡率。进行了一个实例研究，以演示所提出方法的适用性。
