做出更好的决策：采用斯皮格尔哈特 - 尼尔 - 琼斯方法构建临床评分系统。
Making better decisions: construction of clinical scoring systems by the Spiegelhalter-Knill-Jones approach.
作者信息
Seymour D G, Green M, Vaz F G
机构信息
University Department of Geriatric Medicine, Cardiff Royal Infirmary.
出版信息
BMJ. 1990 Jan 27;300(6719):223-6. doi: 10.1136/bmj.300.6719.223.
Abstract
A study was carried out assessing the practical use of a simple system of scoring information which can help in making a diagnosis or establishing a prognosis in an individual patient. The system was introduced in 1984 for use in gastroenterology, but it can be employed in a wide range of medical and surgical settings. This series was concerned with predicting postoperative respiratory complications in a group of elderly surgical patients. The system combines elements from Baye's theorem and logistic regression, though no mathematical knowledge is required to apply it in clinical practice. The method by which results are presented is easy to understand, yet at the same time more complex ideas such as conflict of evidence and doubt may be embraced if the clinician so desires.
摘要
开展了一项研究，评估一种简单信息评分系统的实际应用，该系统有助于对个体患者进行诊断或判断预后。该系统于1984年引入，用于胃肠病学领域，但也可应用于广泛的医疗和外科环境。本系列研究关注一组老年外科患者术后呼吸并发症的预测。该系统结合了贝叶斯定理和逻辑回归的要素，不过在临床实践中应用它并不需要数学知识。呈现结果的方法易于理解，然而，如果临床医生有此意愿，也可以纳入更复杂的概念，如证据冲突和疑虑。
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