Studies of the maintenance of subsidized foster placements in the Casey Family Program.

The Casey Family Program provides a planned, long-term approach to subsidized foster care for the underachievers of the child welfare system. Its concept is a marriage of what foster care professionals know about effectively helping children and what managers know about effectively running organizations. The purpose of our studies of The Casey Family Program was to determine whether the outcomes of its foster placements were predictable from factors that could be known, at least in principle, at the time the placements were made. We built statistical models of placement maintenance based upon characteristics of (a) the foster child; (b) his or her biological family; and (c) the foster family. We used two main sources of data to construct models: archival material on the child and his or her biological family, and caseworker ratings of various aspects of the child and his or her foster family. Information was derived from a sample of 51 children served by the Montana Division of The Casey Family Program to build the models, which in general provided accurate predictions of placement outcomes. The models were then cross-validated with a sample of 55 children from the Idaho Division. There was a substantial amount of shrinkage in the variance accounted for in the cross-validation sample, but outcomes remained largely predictable. To determine whether predictions of placement outcomes could be based upon brief assessments of factors that could be evaluated at the time placements were made, a third study was undertaken. The results of that study implied that ratings of salient characteristics of foster children and foster families based upon as little as a single day's observation could be used to effectively predict placement outcomes. Several aspects of these studies deserve special emphasis. First, the research confirmed that the children served by the Montana and Idaho divisions of TCFP were among the underachievers of the child welfare system whom Jim Casey desired to reach. It also confirmed that the Montana and Idaho divisions were doing an effective job of serving those children. Their placements were generally stable and both foster children and foster families were rated as functioning at levels that ranged from acceptable to good.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)