Walsh J A, Walsh R A
Department of Psychology, University of Montana, Missoula.
Child Welfare. 1990 Mar-Apr;69(2):99-114.
The Casey Family Program provides a planned, long-term approach to subsidized foster care for the underachievers of the child welfare system. Its concept is a marriage of what foster care professionals know about effectively helping children and what managers know about effectively running organizations. The purpose of our studies of The Casey Family Program was to determine whether the outcomes of its foster placements were predictable from factors that could be known, at least in principle, at the time the placements were made. We built statistical models of placement maintenance based upon characteristics of (a) the foster child; (b) his or her biological family; and (c) the foster family. We used two main sources of data to construct models: archival material on the child and his or her biological family, and caseworker ratings of various aspects of the child and his or her foster family. Information was derived from a sample of 51 children served by the Montana Division of The Casey Family Program to build the models, which in general provided accurate predictions of placement outcomes. The models were then cross-validated with a sample of 55 children from the Idaho Division. There was a substantial amount of shrinkage in the variance accounted for in the cross-validation sample, but outcomes remained largely predictable. To determine whether predictions of placement outcomes could be based upon brief assessments of factors that could be evaluated at the time placements were made, a third study was undertaken. The results of that study implied that ratings of salient characteristics of foster children and foster families based upon as little as a single day's observation could be used to effectively predict placement outcomes. Several aspects of these studies deserve special emphasis. First, the research confirmed that the children served by the Montana and Idaho divisions of TCFP were among the underachievers of the child welfare system whom Jim Casey desired to reach. It also confirmed that the Montana and Idaho divisions were doing an effective job of serving those children. Their placements were generally stable and both foster children and foster families were rated as functioning at levels that ranged from acceptable to good.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)
凯西家庭项目为儿童福利系统中的后进儿童提供了一种有规划的长期补贴寄养方式。其理念是将寄养专业人员所熟知的有效帮助儿童的方法与管理人员所熟知的有效运营组织的方法结合起来。我们对凯西家庭项目进行研究的目的是，确定能否根据寄养安置时至少原则上可知的因素来预测其寄养安置的结果。我们基于以下特征建立了安置维持的统计模型：（a）寄养儿童；（b）其亲生家庭；（c）寄养家庭。我们使用了两个主要数据源来构建模型：关于儿童及其亲生家庭的档案材料，以及个案工作者对儿童及其寄养家庭各方面的评级。信息来自蒙大拿州凯西家庭项目部门服务的51名儿童样本，以此构建模型，该模型总体上能准确预测安置结果。然后，这些模型用爱达荷州部门的55名儿童样本进行交叉验证。交叉验证样本中所解释的方差有大量缩减，但结果在很大程度上仍可预测。为了确定能否基于对安置时可评估因素的简短评估来预测安置结果，我们进行了第三项研究。该研究结果表明，仅基于一天的观察对寄养儿童和寄养家庭显著特征的评级，可用于有效预测安置结果。这些研究的几个方面值得特别强调。首先，研究证实，蒙大拿州和爱达荷州凯西家庭项目部门服务的儿童属于吉姆·凯西希望惠及的儿童福利系统中的后进儿童。研究还证实，蒙大拿州和爱达荷州部门在为这些儿童提供服务方面工作卓有成效。他们的安置总体稳定，寄养儿童和寄养家庭的功能评级都处于从可接受至良好的水平。（摘要截选至400词）
