Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA.
J Fish Biol. 2010 Nov;77(8):1764-82. doi: 10.1111/j.1095-8649.2010.02759.x. Epub 2010 Oct 11.
The Laurentian Great Lakes Basin provides an ecological system to evaluate the potential effect of climate change on dynamics of fish populations and the management of their fisheries. This review describes the physical and biological mechanisms by which fish populations will be affected by changes in timing and duration of ice cover, precipitation events and temperature regimes associated with projected climate change in the Great Lakes Basin with a principal focus on the fish communities in shallower regions of the basin. Lake whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis, walleye Sander vitreus and smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu were examined to assess the potential effects of climate change on guilds of Great Lakes cold, cool and warm-water fishes, respectively. Overall, the projections for these fishes are for the increased thermally suitable habitat within the lakes, though in different regions than they currently inhabit. Colder-water fishes will seek refuge further north and deeper in the water column and warmer-water fishes will fill the vacated habitat space in the warmer regions of the lakes. While these projections can be modified by a number of other habitat elements (e.g. anoxia, ice cover, dispersal ability and trophic productivity), it is clear that climate-change drivers will challenge the nature, flexibility and public perception of current fisheries management programmes. Fisheries agencies should develop decision support tools to provide a systematic method for incorporating ecological responses to climate change and moderating public interests to ensure a sustainable future for Great Lakes fishes and fisheries.
圣劳伦斯大湖流域提供了一个生态系统，可以评估气候变化对鱼类种群动态和渔业管理的潜在影响。本综述描述了鱼类种群将如何受到冰盖覆盖时间和持续时间、降水事件以及与大湖流域预计气候变化相关的温度变化的物理和生物机制的影响，主要关注的是流域较浅区域的鱼类群落。本文以湖白鲑 Coregonus clupeaformis、大眼梭鲈 Sander vitreus 和小口黑鲈 Micropterus dolomieu 为研究对象，评估气候变化对大湖冷、凉、温水鱼类群的潜在影响。总体而言，这些鱼类的预测结果是它们在湖泊中的热适宜栖息地增加，尽管它们目前所处的区域不同。冷水鱼类将向北更远和更深的水层寻找避难所，温水鱼类将填补湖泊较温暖区域的空缺栖息地空间。虽然这些预测可以通过许多其他的栖息地因素（如缺氧、冰盖、扩散能力和营养生产力）来修改，但很明显，气候变化驱动因素将挑战当前渔业管理计划的性质、灵活性和公众认知。渔业机构应开发决策支持工具，为系统地纳入对气候变化的生态响应和调节公众利益提供一种方法，以确保大湖鱼类和渔业的可持续未来。
