Health Protection Agency, Centre for Infections, London, UK.
Epidemiol Infect. 2011 Oct;139(10):1560-9. doi: 10.1017/S0950268810002657. Epub 2010 Nov 26.
Uncertainties exist regarding the population risks of hospitalization due to pandemic influenza A(H1N1). Understanding these risks is important for patients, clinicians and policy makers. This study aimed to clarify these uncertainties. A national surveillance system was established for patients hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed pandemic influenza A(H1N1) in England. Information was captured on demographics, pre-existing conditions, treatment and outcomes. The relative risks of hospitalization associated with pre-existing conditions were estimated by combining the captured data with population prevalence estimates. A total of 2416 hospitalizations were reported up to 6 January 2010. Within the population, 4·7 people/100,000 were hospitalized with pandemic influenza A(H1N1). The estimated hospitalization rate of cases showed a U-shaped distribution with age. Chronic kidney disease, chronic neurological disease, chronic respiratory disease and immunosuppression were each associated with a 10- to 20-fold increased risk of hospitalization. Patients who received antiviral medication within 48 h of symptom onset were less likely to be admitted to critical care than those who received them after this time (adjusted odds ratio 0·64, 95% confidence interval 0·44-0·94, P=0·024). In England the risk of hospitalization with pandemic influenza A(H1N1) has been concentrated in the young and those with pre-existing conditions. By quantifying these risks, this study will prove useful in planning for the next winter in the northern and southern hemispheres, and for future pandemics.
关于大流行性甲型 H1N1 流感导致住院的人群风险,目前尚存在不确定性。了解这些风险对于患者、临床医生和决策者来说非常重要。本研究旨在阐明这些不确定性。在英格兰建立了一个针对实验室确诊的大流行性甲型 H1N1 流感住院患者的全国监测系统。收集了人口统计学、既往疾病、治疗和结局方面的信息。通过将捕获的数据与人群流行率估计值相结合,估计了与既往疾病相关的住院相对风险。截至 2010 年 1 月 6 日,共报告了 2416 例住院病例。在人群中,每 10 万人中有 4.7 人因大流行性甲型 H1N1 流感住院。病例的估计住院率呈年龄的 U 形分布。慢性肾脏病、慢性神经疾病、慢性呼吸道疾病和免疫抑制均与住院风险增加 10 至 20 倍相关。在症状出现后 48 小时内接受抗病毒药物治疗的患者比在此之后接受治疗的患者更不可能被收入重症监护病房(校正比值比 0.64,95%置信区间 0.44-0.94,P=0.024)。在英格兰,大流行性甲型 H1N1 流感导致住院的风险主要集中在年轻人和有既往疾病的人群中。通过量化这些风险,本研究将有助于规划北半球和南半球下一个冬季以及未来大流行的应对措施。