Department of Management, Imperial College Business School, London, UK.
Centre for Health Economics & Policy Innovation (CHEPI), Imperial College Business School, London, UK.
Health Econ. 2019 Feb;28(2):175-188. doi: 10.1002/hec.3834. Epub 2018 Oct 18.
Influenza pandemics considerably burden affected health systems due to surges in inpatient admissions and associated costs. Previous studies underestimate or overestimate 2009/2010 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic hospital admissions and costs. We robustly estimate overall and age-specific weekly H1N1 admissions and costs between June 2009 and March 2011 across 170 English hospitals. We calculate H1N1 admissions and costs as the difference between our administrative data of all influenza-like-illness patients (seasonal and pandemic alike) and a counterfactual of expected weekly seasonal influenza admissions and costs established using time-series models on prepandemic (2004-2008) data. We find two waves of H1N1 admissions: one pandemic wave (June 2009-March 2010) with 10,348 admissions costing £20.5 million and one postpandemic wave (November 2010-March 2011) with 11,775 admissions costing £24.8 million. Patients aged 0-4 years old have the highest H1N1 admission rate, and 25- to 44- and 65+-year-olds have the highest costs. Our estimates are up to 4.3 times higher than previous reports, suggesting that the pandemic's burden on hospitals was formerly underassessed. Our findings can help hospitals manage unexpected surges in admissions and resource use due to pandemics.
流感大流行给受影响的卫生系统带来了相当大的负担,原因是住院人数增加和相关费用增加。以前的研究低估或高估了 2009/2010 年甲型 H1N1 流感大流行的住院人数和费用。我们在 170 家英国医院中,对 2009 年 6 月至 2011 年 3 月期间的总体和特定年龄组的每周甲型 H1N1 住院人数和费用进行了稳健估计。我们通过计算所有流感样疾病患者(季节性和大流行流感)的行政数据与使用大流行前(2004-2008 年)数据的时间序列模型建立的每周季节性流感预期住院人数和费用的反事实数据之间的差异,来计算甲型 H1N1 的住院人数和费用。我们发现了两波甲型 H1N1 住院人数:一波大流行(2009 年 6 月至 2010 年 3 月),有 10348 例住院,费用为 2050 万英镑;一波大流行后(2010 年 11 月至 2011 年 3 月),有 11775 例住院,费用为 2480 万英镑。0-4 岁的患者甲型 H1N1 住院率最高,25-44 岁和 65 岁以上的患者费用最高。我们的估计值比以前的报告高出 4.3 倍,这表明以前对大流行给医院带来的负担评估不足。我们的研究结果可以帮助医院管理因大流行而导致的住院人数和资源使用的意外激增。