U.S. Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service, Forage Seed and Cereal Research Unit, and Oregon State University, Department of Botany and Plant Pathology, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA.
Phytopathology. 2011 Jun;101(6):640-3. doi: 10.1094/PHYTO-04-10-0124.
Rational management of plant diseases, both economically and environmentally, involves assessing risks and the costs associated with both correct and incorrect tactical management decisions to determine when control measures are warranted. Decision support systems can help to inform users of plant disease risk and thus assist in accurately targeting events critical for management. However, in many instances adoption of these systems for use in routine disease management has been perceived as slow. The under-utilization of some decision support systems is likely due to both technical and perception constraints that have not been addressed adequately during development and implementation phases. Growers' perceptions of risk and their aversion to these perceived risks can be reasons for the "slow" uptake of decision support systems and, more broadly, integrated pest management (IPM). Decision theory provides some tools that may assist in quantifying and incorporating subjective and/or measured probabilities of disease occurrence or crop loss into decision support systems. Incorporation of subjective probabilities into IPM recommendations may be one means to reduce grower uncertainty and improve trust of these systems because management recommendations could be explicitly informed by growers' perceptions of risk and economic utility. Ultimately though, we suggest that an appropriate measure of the value and impact of decision support systems is grower education that enables more skillful and informed management decisions independent of consultation of the support tool outputs.
理性管理植物病害，无论是从经济角度还是从环境角度，都需要评估风险和与正确和错误战术管理决策相关的成本，以确定何时需要采取控制措施。决策支持系统可以帮助用户了解植物病害风险，从而有助于准确确定对管理至关重要的事件。然而，在许多情况下，这些系统在常规疾病管理中的应用被认为进展缓慢。一些决策支持系统未被充分利用，可能是由于在开发和实施阶段未充分解决技术和认知方面的限制。种植者对风险的认知及其对这些感知风险的回避可能是决策支持系统以及更广泛的病虫害综合管理（IPM）采用缓慢的原因。决策理论提供了一些工具，可以帮助量化和纳入主观和/或测量的疾病发生或作物损失的概率到决策支持系统中。将主观概率纳入 IPM 建议可能是减少种植者不确定性和提高对这些系统信任度的一种手段，因为管理建议可以通过种植者对风险和经济效用的认知来明确告知。不过，我们认为，衡量决策支持系统的价值和影响的适当方法是种植者教育，这可以使他们在不依赖支持工具输出的情况下，做出更熟练和明智的管理决策。
