Ruett Marius, Dalhaus Tobias, Whitney Cory, Luedeling Eike
INRES-Horticultural Sciences, University of Bonn, Auf dem Hügel 6, 53121 Bonn, Germany.
Business Economics Group, Wageningen University and Research, Hollandseweg 1, 6706 KN Wageningen, Netherlands.
Precis Agric. 2022;23(5):1775-1800. doi: 10.1007/s11119-022-09909-z. Epub 2022 May 22.
Many farmers hesitate to adopt new management strategies with actual or perceived risks and uncertainties. Especially in ornamental plant production, farmers often stick to current production strategies to avoid the risk of economically harmful plant losses, even though they may recognize the need to optimize farm management. This work focused on the economically important and little-researched production system of ornamental heather () to help farmers find appropriate measures to sustainably improve resource use, plant quality, and profitability despite existing risks. Probabilistic cost-benefit analysis was applied to simulate alternative disease monitoring strategies. The outcomes for more intensive visual monitoring, as well as sensor-based monitoring using hyperspectral imaging were simulated. Based on the results of the probabilistic cost-benefit analysis, the expected utility of the alternative strategies was assessed as a function of the farmer's level of risk aversion. The analysis of expected utility indicated that heather production is generally risky. Concerning the alternative strategies, more intensive visual monitoring provides the highest utility for farmers for almost all levels of risk aversion compared to all other strategies. Results of the probabilistic cost-benefit analysis indicated that more intensive visual monitoring increases net benefits in 68% of the simulated cases. The application of sensor-based monitoring leads to negative economic outcomes in 85% of the simulated cases. This research approach is widely applicable to predict the impacts of new management strategies in precision agriculture. The methodology can be used to provide farmers in other data-scarce production systems with concrete recommendations that account for uncertainties and risks.
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11119-022-09909-z.
许多农民因实际或感知到的风险与不确定性而对采用新的管理策略犹豫不决。尤其是在观赏植物生产中，农民常常坚持当前的生产策略以避免经济上有害的植物损失风险，即便他们可能认识到需要优化农场管理。这项工作聚焦于经济上重要但研究较少的观赏石南（）生产系统，以帮助农民找到适当措施，尽管存在现有风险，仍能可持续地提高资源利用、植物质量和盈利能力。应用概率成本效益分析来模拟替代疾病监测策略。模拟了更密集的视觉监测以及使用高光谱成像的基于传感器的监测结果。基于概率成本效益分析的结果，将替代策略的预期效用评估为农民风险厌恶程度的函数。预期效用分析表明，石南生产总体上具有风险。关于替代策略，与所有其他策略相比，对于几乎所有风险厌恶程度的农民而言，更密集的视觉监测提供了最高的效用。概率成本效益分析结果表明，在68%的模拟案例中，更密集的视觉监测增加了净收益。在85%的模拟案例中，基于传感器的监测应用导致了负面经济结果。这种研究方法广泛适用于预测精准农业中新管理策略的影响。该方法可用于为其他数据稀缺生产系统中的农民提供考虑到不确定性和风险的具体建议。
在线版本包含可在10.1007/s11119-022-09909-z获取的补充材料。
