Kiffner C, Lödige C, Alings M, Vor T, Rühe F
Department of Forest Zoology and Forest Conservation incl. Wildlife Biology and Game Management, Büsgen-Institute, Georg-August-University Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany.
Med Vet Entomol. 2011 Mar;25(1):39-45. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2915.2010.00929.x. Epub 2010 Dec 1.
Macroparasites feeding on wildlife hosts follow skewed distributions for which basic statistical approaches are of limited use. To predict Ixodes spp. tick burden on roe deer, we applied Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) which allow incorporating a variable dispersion. We analysed tick burden of 78 roe deer, sampled in a forest region of Germany over a period of 20 months. Assuming a negative binomial error distribution and controlling for ambient temperature, we analysed whether host sex and body mass affected individual tick burdens. Models for larval and nymphal tick burden included host sex, with male hosts being more heavily infested than female ones. However, the influence of host sex on immature tick burden was associated with wide standard errors (nymphs) or the factor was marginally significant (larvae). Adult tick burden was positively correlated with host body mass. Thus, controlled for host body mass and ambient temperature, there is weak support for sex-biased parasitism in this system. Compared with models which assume linear relationships, GAMLSS provided a better fit. Adding a variable dispersion term improved only one of the four models. Yet, the potential of modelling dispersion as a function of variables appears promising for larger datasets.
以野生动物为宿主的大型寄生虫呈现出偏态分布,基本的统计方法对此用处有限。为了预测狍身上的硬蜱属蜱虫负荷,我们应用了位置、尺度和形状广义相加模型(GAMLSS),该模型允许纳入可变离散度。我们分析了在德国一个森林地区20个月内采集的78只狍的蜱虫负荷。假设负二项误差分布并控制环境温度,我们分析了宿主性别和体重是否会影响个体蜱虫负荷。幼虫和若虫蜱虫负荷模型纳入了宿主性别,雄性宿主的感染程度高于雌性宿主。然而,宿主性别对未成熟蜱虫负荷的影响与较大的标准误差(若虫)相关,或者该因素只是边缘显著(幼虫)。成年蜱虫负荷与宿主体重呈正相关。因此,在控制宿主体重和环境温度的情况下,该系统中性别偏向寄生的证据不足。与假设线性关系的模型相比,GAMLSS拟合效果更好。添加可变离散度项仅改善了四个模型中的一个。然而,将离散度建模为变量函数的潜力对于更大的数据集似乎很有前景。