Seed viability in declining populations of Caladenia rigida (Orchidaceae): are small populations doomed?

Despite comparatively good rates of pollination and seed production, some populations of the endangered terrestrial orchid Caladenia rigida continue to decline. To determine whether seed quality may be limiting reproductive potential, we assessed seed viability among declining populations of C. rigida (in the southern part of its distribution) and among populations that are regarded as stable (in the northern part of its distribution). We also compared differences in seed viability to plant traits, population size and habitat characteristics (soil properties, canopy cover, presence of proximate vegetation). Seed capsules from southern populations were significantly smaller, with only 9% of seeds being viable, compared to 36% in capsules from northern populations. Soil phosphorus concentrations differed between regions, but other habitat characteristics did not correlate with seed viability. Using calculations based on seedling recruitment data from other Caladenia species, we predict that seed output is insufficient to ensure the long-term persistence of the smallest C. rigida populations.