Scholer S G, Potter J F, Burke W J
Section of Geriatrics and Gerontology, University of Nebraska Medical Center, Omaha 68105.
J Am Geriatr Soc. 1990 Jul;38(7):767-72. doi: 10.1111/j.1532-5415.1990.tb01467.x.
This study examines the utility of the Williams Manual Test (WMT) in predicting those older patients who will eventually require formal services. One hundred seventeen older subjects underwent comprehensive geriatric assessment that included administration of the WMT and questionnaires assessing current service use. Study participants returned at 6 and 12 months for repeat measurement of study variables. The WMT was found to be a significant predictor of additional service use at 12 months (chi 2 = 6.4, P less than .01). The test had high specificity (83%) but relatively low sensitivity (40%). The lack of sensitivity in this study group was likely due to high levels of stress among caregivers whose relative was otherwise not predicted to need services. When the WMT was repeated after 6 and 12 months, the results were highly reproducible. The WMT appears to be a useful predictor of increasing formal service use. However, in certain study groups, its predictive ability may be affected by high levels of caregiver stress.
本研究考察了威廉姆斯手册测试（WMT）在预测哪些老年患者最终需要正式服务方面的效用。117名老年受试者接受了全面的老年评估，其中包括进行WMT测试以及评估当前服务使用情况的问卷调查。研究参与者在6个月和12个月时返回进行研究变量的重复测量。结果发现，WMT是12个月时额外服务使用情况的显著预测指标（卡方 = 6.4，P < 0.01）。该测试具有较高的特异性（83%），但灵敏度相对较低（40%）。本研究组中灵敏度不足可能是由于照顾者压力水平较高，而其亲属原本预计不需要服务。在6个月和12个月后重复进行WMT测试时，结果具有高度可重复性。WMT似乎是正式服务使用增加的有用预测指标。然而，在某些研究组中，其预测能力可能会受到照顾者高压力水平的影响。
