Wen Zhi, Pollock Kenneth, Nichols James, Waser Peter
Office of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Center for Biologics Research and Evaluation, Food and Drug Administration, Rockville, Maryland 20850, USA.
Biometrics. 2011 Sep;67(3):691-700. doi: 10.1111/j.1541-0420.2010.01522.x. Epub 2010 Dec 14.
Ecologists applying capture-recapture models to animal populations sometimes have access to additional information about individuals' populations of origin (e.g., information about genetics, stable isotopes, etc.). Tests that assign an individual's genotype to its most likely source population are increasingly used. Here we show how to augment a superpopulation capture-recapture model with such information. We consider a single superpopulation model without age structure, and split each entry probability into separate components due to births in situ and immigration. We show that it is possible to estimate these two probabilities separately. We first consider the case of perfect information about population of origin, where we can distinguish individuals born in situ from immigrants with certainty. Then we consider the more realistic case of imperfect information, where we use genetic or other information to assign probabilities to each individual's origin as in situ or outside the population. We use a resampling approach to impute the true population of origin from imperfect assignment information. The integration of data on population of origin with capture-recapture data allows us to determine the contributions of immigration and in situ reproduction to the growth of the population, an issue of importance to ecologists. We illustrate our new models with capture-recapture and genetic assignment data from a population of banner-tailed kangaroo rats Dipodomys spectabilis in Arizona.
将捕获-再捕获模型应用于动物种群的生态学家有时可以获得有关个体种群来源的额外信息（例如，有关遗传学、稳定同位素等的信息）。越来越多地使用将个体基因型分配到其最可能来源种群的测试。在这里，我们展示了如何用此类信息扩充一个超级种群捕获-再捕获模型。我们考虑一个没有年龄结构的单一超级种群模型，并将每个进入概率分解为原地出生和迁入导致的单独组成部分。我们表明可以分别估计这两个概率。我们首先考虑关于种群来源的完美信息的情况，即我们可以确定地区分原地出生的个体和迁入个体。然后我们考虑更现实的不完美信息的情况，即我们使用遗传或其他信息为每个个体原地或种群外的来源分配概率。我们使用重采样方法从不完美的分配信息中推断出真实的种群来源。将种群来源数据与捕获-再捕获数据相结合，使我们能够确定迁入和原地繁殖对种群增长的贡献，这是生态学家所关注的一个重要问题。我们用来自亚利桑那州旗尾更格卢鼠（Dipodomys spectabilis）种群的捕获-再捕获和遗传分配数据说明了我们的新模型。
