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青霉素消费对肺炎球菌传播影响的概率网络建模。

Probabilistic network modelling of the impact of penicillin consumption on spread of pneumococci.

机构信息

Infection Biology, School of Life Sciences, University of Skövde, Skövde, Sweden.

出版信息

Epidemiol Infect. 2011 Sep;139(9):1351-60. doi: 10.1017/S0950268810002773. Epub 2010 Dec 15.

DOI:10.1017/S0950268810002773
PMID:21156095
Abstract

The worldwide increase of resistant S. pneumoniae is a growing clinical problem. In several countries, a more restrictive use of penicillin has been promoted in hope of slowing the rates of resistant pneumococci. However, the consequences of such an action on pneumococcal population dynamics are not fully understood. Thus, a network model was constructed to assess the impacts of penicillin consumption and between-strain competition on the spread of penicillin non-susceptible pneumococci. Model simulations suggest that the age distribution for carriage of penicillin non-susceptible pneumococci, in contrast to susceptible pneumococci, is affected by penicillin consumption. Furthermore, it appears extremely difficult to reduce the incidence of penicillin non-susceptible pneumococci by simply controlling penicillin consumption, assuming that reduced penicillin susceptibility does not confer a fitness cost for the organism. A more judicious use of penicillin together with control measures are in that case required to manage penicillin resistance in pneumococci.

摘要

全球范围内耐青霉素肺炎链球菌的增加是一个日益严重的临床问题。在许多国家,为了减缓耐药肺炎球菌的出现率,人们提倡更严格地使用青霉素。然而,这种做法对肺炎球菌种群动态的影响尚未完全了解。因此,构建了一个网络模型来评估青霉素消耗和菌株间竞争对青霉素不敏感肺炎球菌传播的影响。模型模拟表明,与青霉素敏感肺炎球菌相比,青霉素不敏感肺炎球菌的携带率的年龄分布受青霉素消耗的影响。此外,假设青霉素耐药性不赋予生物体适应性成本,那么仅通过控制青霉素消耗来降低青霉素不敏感肺炎球菌的发生率似乎极其困难。在这种情况下,需要更明智地使用青霉素并采取控制措施来管理肺炎球菌中的青霉素耐药性。

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Infect Ecol Epidemiol. 2016 May 19;6:31234. doi: 10.3402/iee.v6.31234. eCollection 2016.
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