Wang Xiao-li, Yang Peng, Dou Xiang-feng, Zhang Yi, Liu Wen-ting, Deng Ying, Pang Xing-huo, He Xiong, Wang Quan-yi
Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100013, China.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2010 May;31(5):497-9.
To estimate the real number of novel influenza A (H1N1) infection in Beijing, 2009.
A multiplier model (Impact 2009 v 1.0 software) based on Monte Carlo approach was used to estimate the real number of novel influenza A (H1N1) based on the number of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases, novel influenza A (H1N1) positive rate among ILI cases and rate on clinical visit of ILIs in secondary and tertiary hospitals.
There were 1.80 million (90%CI: 1.46 - 2.30) estimated novel influenza A (H1N1) cases in 2009 in Beijing with the rate of infection as 11.0%. One reported case would represent 167 real infections. The highest age groups of infection were 0 - 4 years and 5 - 14 years, being 32.5% and 33.3%, respectively.
Laboratory-confirmed infections with novel influenza A (H1N1) only represented a fraction of the total cases in a population, suggesting that it was imperative to estimate the real number of novel influenza A (H1N1) infection.
估算2009年北京市甲型H1N1流感的实际感染人数。
基于蒙特卡洛方法的乘数模型（Impact 2009 v 1.0软件），根据流感样病例数、流感样病例中甲流H1N1阳性率以及二级和三级医院流感样病例的就诊率来估算甲型H1N1流感的实际感染人数。
2009年北京市甲型H1N1流感估计病例数为180万（90%可信区间：146 - 230万），感染率为11.0%。每报告1例代表167例实际感染。感染率最高的年龄组为0 - 4岁和5 - 14岁，分别为32.5%和33.3%。
甲型H1N1流感实验室确诊感染病例仅占人群中总病例数的一部分，表明估算甲型H1N1流感实际感染人数势在必行。
