Hribar Lawrence J, DeMay David J, Lund Ulric J
Florida Keys Mosquito Control District, Marathon, FL 33050, USA.
J Vector Ecol. 2010 Dec;35(2):339-46. doi: 10.1111/j.1948-7134.2010.00092.x.
The black salt marsh mosquito, Aedes taeniorhynchus, is a serious nuisance pest and a potential vector of a number of arboviruses. This study examined the effect of wind direction, wind speed, temperature, and time of year on the abundance of Ae. taeniorhynchus collected in CO₂ -baited light traps at 12 sites in the Florida Keys during 2004. The dependent variable analyzed was the natural log of weekly mosquito abundance. The previous week's wind speed and wind direction, and the current week's temperature were used as independent variables. Simple and multiple linear regression models were used to assess the significance and nature of association between the meteorological variables and the natural log of mosquito abundance, and to determine whether the meteorological variables had significant associations with mosquito abundance after also controlling for time of year. Week of year was treated as a circular independent variable in the regression models, using the sine and cosine of week in radians to model the periodic seasonal fluctuation in mosquito abundance. Mosquito abundance was significantly associated with all meteorological variables and with week of year. Individually, previous week's wind speed and wind direction, and current week's temperature were able to explain respectively 24.5%, 24.5%, and 52.1% of the variation in mosquito abundance observed over the year. Week of year had the strongest individual association with mosquito abundance, explaining 65.7% of the variation in mosquito abundance. The meteorological variables were still significantly associated with mosquito abundance, after controlling for week of year. Week and the meteorological variables together explained 79.2% of the variation in mosquito abundance. The regression models fit to the data from this study suggest a strong periodic seasonal variation in mosquito abundance, with meteorological conditions explaining a significant portion of the variation beyond the seasonal trend.
黑盐沼蚊（Aedes taeniorhynchus）是一种严重的骚扰性害虫，也是多种虫媒病毒的潜在传播媒介。本研究调查了风向、风速、温度和年份时间对2004年在佛罗里达群岛12个地点用二氧化碳诱饵诱蚊灯捕获的黑盐沼蚊数量的影响。分析的因变量是每周蚊虫数量的自然对数。将前一周的风速和风向以及当周的温度作为自变量。使用简单和多元线性回归模型来评估气象变量与蚊虫数量自然对数之间关联的显著性和性质，并确定在控制年份时间后气象变量与蚊虫数量是否具有显著关联。在回归模型中，年份周数被视为循环自变量，使用周数的弧度制正弦和余弦来模拟蚊虫数量的周期性季节波动。蚊虫数量与所有气象变量以及年份周数均显著相关。单独来看，前一周的风速、风向以及当周的温度分别能够解释全年观察到的蚊虫数量变化的24.5%、24.5%和52.1%。年份周数与蚊虫数量的个体关联最强，解释了蚊虫数量变化的65.7%。在控制年份周数后，气象变量与蚊虫数量仍显著相关。周数和气象变量共同解释了蚊虫数量变化的79.2%。根据本研究数据拟合的回归模型表明，蚊虫数量存在强烈的周期性季节变化，气象条件解释了季节性趋势之外的很大一部分变化。
