Programa de Pós-Graduação em Medicina e Ciências da Saúde, Faculdade de Medicina, Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, RS, Brasil.
Rev Saude Publica. 2011 Feb;45(1):106-12. doi: 10.1590/s0034-89102011000100012.
To test the predictive validity of the Probability of Repeated Hospital Admissions questionnaire among older adults.
A population-based cohort study with a 6-month follow-up was implemented with 515 non-institutionalized older people (>60 years) cared for by the Family Health Strategy in the city of Progresso, Southern Brazil, in 2005. Participants answered eight objective questions that were entered in a logistic regression model to estimate the risk of future hospital admission, by risk strata. Survival analysis and the receiver operating characteristics curve were utilized to assess instrument validity.
Among participants, 56.1% were women and 10.1% were hospitalized. The high-risk group had a 6.5 times greater frequency of hospitalization in comparison to the low-risk category.
The instrument is effective in assessing the risk of hospitalization among older adults attended by the Family Health Program of the National Unified Health Care System.
检验老年人重复住院概率问卷在预测中的有效性。
2005 年，在巴西南部普鲁塞多市，对接受家庭健康战略照顾的 515 名非住院老年人（>60 岁）进行了一项基于人群的队列研究，随访时间为 6 个月。参与者回答了 8 个客观问题，这些问题被输入到一个逻辑回归模型中，以估计未来住院的风险，分为风险层次。生存分析和受试者工作特征曲线用于评估仪器的有效性。
参与者中，56.1%为女性，10.1%住院。高危组的住院频率是低危组的 6.5 倍。
该工具可有效评估参加国家统一医疗保健系统家庭健康计划的老年人的住院风险。
