Katz M
J Health Polit Policy Law. 1977 Summer;2(2):227-56. doi: 10.1215/03616878-2-2-227.
This study identifies trends that will lead to a dramatic increase in the number of active physicians in the United States during the next decade. The supply of active medical doctors (MDs) and doctors of osteopathy (DOs) as well as active post-graduate MDs and DOs in the U.S. is projected to increase by approximately 50 percent in the decade ending in 1985. The number of active physicians per 100,000 population is similarly expected to increase by approximately one-third. The production of surgical specialists, in particular, appears to be excessive. In response, the average length of physician graduate training programs is anticipated to be shortened as more MD and DO graduates enter shorter, general practice residencies. The authors expect that the effects of this projected increase in the supply of physicians may relieve geographic disparities in physician distribution, rationalize the organization of medical practice, and reduce physicians' incomes relative to other professional groups and possibly in absolute terms. The projected increases in the supply of physicians will give the federal government much more flexibility and bargaining power should it choose to implement a national health insurance program with salaried physicians.
本研究确定了未来十年将导致美国执业医生数量大幅增加的趋势。预计到1985年的十年间，美国执业医学博士（MD）、整骨疗法博士（DO）以及在职医学博士和整骨疗法博士研究生的数量将增加约50%。每10万人口中的执业医生数量预计也将增加约三分之一。特别是外科专科医生的培养似乎过多。作为回应，随着更多医学博士和整骨疗法博士毕业生进入更短的全科住院医师培训项目，预计医生研究生培训项目的平均时长将缩短。作者预计，预计的医生供应增加可能会缓解医生分布的地区差异，使医疗实践的组织更加合理，并相对于其他专业群体降低医生的收入，甚至可能是绝对收入。如果联邦政府选择实施由受薪医生参与的国家医疗保险计划，预计的医生供应增加将赋予其更大的灵活性和谈判能力。
