Changes in standard electrocardiographic ST-segment elevation predictive of successful reperfusion in acute myocardial infarction.

The ability of the electrocardiographic ST segment to predict successful reperfusion after thrombolytic therapy remains controversial. To evaluate whether angiographically determined reperfusion could be predicted from changes in ST-segment elevation, the sum of ST-segment elevation in affected leads of the electrocardiogram was compared before and after thrombolytic therapy in 53 patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Reperfusion status of the infarct-related artery was determined angiographically less than 8 hours from onset of symptoms. According to the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction trial (TIMI) criteria, 33 patients had successful reperfusion (TIMI grade 2 to 3 flow) after thrombolytic therapy and 20 patients did not (TIMI grade 0 to 1 flow). Logistic multiple regression analysis showed that the proportional value for the shift in the sum of ST elevation, termed the "% ST change," was more strongly associated with reperfusion than the absolute measured difference in millimeters (chi-square = 11.34 vs 9.22). The entire spectra of sensitivities and specificities were determined to identify a level of the percent ST change with simultaneous high sensitivity and specificity. A 20% decrease in ST elevation provided such a level (88% sensitivity, 80% specificity). The positive and negative predictive values of a 20% decrease in ST elevation were 88 and 80%, respectively. These results suggest that a decrease of only 20% in the sum of ST elevation in the standard electrocardiogram after thrombolytic therapy is a useful noninvasive predictor of reperfusion status in patients with evolving AMI.