Institute of Industrial Ecology, Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation.
Int J Environ Health Res. 2011 Feb;21(1):1-21. doi: 10.1080/09603123.2010.499454.
The multiplicative model for estimating incremental cancer risks linked with chemical-specific exposure is developed. The distinguishing feature of the model is that the additional cancer rate in the result of exposure to carcinogenic chemicals changes with age as a value proportional to the background cancer at this age. The proposed methodology enables assessing excess relative risk taking into account age and sex structure of background cancer rate in the exposed population, as well as the existence of a latent time between an exposure and an onset of disease. The model also enables estimating the environment pollution-related health damage, defined as the expected number of lost years of forthcoming life in the result of exposure. The model could be of value for the regulatory community and scientists in projecting a chemically-induced increase in cancer rate in one population to increases in cancer rates in other populations.
建立了用于估计与化学物质特定暴露相关的增量癌症风险的乘法模型。该模型的特点是，由于接触致癌化学物质而导致的额外癌症发病率会随年龄而变化，其数值与该年龄的背景癌症发病率成正比。所提出的方法能够评估超额相对风险，同时考虑到暴露人群中背景癌症发病率的年龄和性别结构，以及暴露与疾病发病之间潜在的时间间隔。该模型还能够估计与环境污染有关的健康损害，其定义为由于暴露而导致预期未来生命中丧失的年数。该模型对于监管机构和科学家来说具有一定的价值，可以将一个人群中因化学物质引起的癌症发病率的增加预测到其他人群中癌症发病率的增加。
