Hitchhikers on trade routes: A phenology model estimates the probabilities of gypsy moth introduction and establishment.

As global trade increases so too does the probability of introduction of alien species to new locations. Estimating the probability of an alien species introduction and establishment following introduction is a necessary step in risk estimation (probability of an event times the consequences, in the currency of choice, of the event should it occur); risk estimation is a valuable tool for reducing the risk of biological invasion with limited resources. The Asian gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.), is a pest species whose consequence of introduction and establishment in North America and New Zealand warrants over US$2 million per year in surveillance expenditure. This work describes the development of a two-dimensional phenology model (GLS-2d) that simulates insect development from source to destination and estimates: (1) the probability of introduction from the proportion of the source population that would achieve the next developmental stage at the destination and (2) the probability of establishment from the proportion of the introduced population that survives until a stable life cycle is reached at the destination. The effect of shipping schedule on the probabilities of introduction and establishment was examined by varying the departure date from 1 January to 25 December by weekly increments. The effect of port efficiency was examined by varying the length of time that invasion vectors (shipping containers and ship) were available for infection. The application of GLS-2d is demonstrated using three common marine trade routes (to Auckland, New Zealand, from Kobe, Japan, and to Vancouver, Canada, from Kobe and from Vladivostok, Russia).