School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading, Earley Gate, PO Box 237, Reading, RG6 6AR, UK.
N Biotechnol. 2011 Jul;28(4):396-406. doi: 10.1016/j.nbt.2011.01.005. Epub 2011 Jan 25.
World population and the need for nutritious food continue to grow. For 14 years farmers from a range of countries across the globe have been accessing transgenic technologies either to reduce crop production costs, increase yield and/or to exploit a range of rotational benefits. In 2009 134 Mha of transgenic crops was grown. The arable area of the EU 27 is approximately 102 Mha; however, only about 0.1 Mha of transgenic crops, mainly maize in Spain, is grown in the EU. This is in part due to limited approvals before the establishment of a moratorium on the cultivation of transgenic crops. In this paper we estimate the revenue foregone by EU farmers, based on the potential hectarages of IR and HT transgenic crops that have been economically successful elsewhere if they were to be grown in areas of the EU where farmers could expect an overall financial benefit. This benefit would accrue primarily from reduced input costs. We estimate that if the areas of transgenic maize, cotton, soya, oil seed rape and sugar beet were to be grown where there is agronomic need or benefit then farmer margins would increase by between €443 and €929 M/year. It is noted that this margin of revenue foregone is likely to increase if the current level of approval and growth remains low, as new transgenic events come to market and are rapidly taken up by farmers in other parts of the world.
世界人口和对营养食品的需求持续增长。全球范围内的农民已经有 14 年的时间可以利用转基因技术，无论是为了降低作物生产成本、提高产量和/或利用一系列轮作效益。2009 年种植了 1.34 亿公顷的转基因作物。欧盟 27 国的耕地面积约为 1.02 亿公顷；然而，欧盟仅种植了约 0.1 万公顷的转基因作物，主要是西班牙的玉米。这部分是由于在对转基因作物种植实行暂停之前，批准的范围有限。本文基于在欧盟能够获得整体经济效益的地区，如果种植其他地区经济上成功的 IR 和 HT 转基因作物的潜在公顷数，估算了欧盟农民的收入损失。这种收益主要来自于降低投入成本。我们估计，如果转基因玉米、棉花、大豆、油菜籽和甜菜的种植面积能够满足农业需要或带来效益，那么农民的利润将每年增加 4.43 亿至 9.29 亿欧元。需要指出的是，如果目前的批准水平和增长仍然较低，随着新的转基因事件进入市场并在世界其他地区被农民迅速采用，这种收入损失的幅度可能会增加。
