Department of Public Health, Kinki University School of Medicine, 377-2, Oono-higasi, Osaka-sayama, Osaka, 589-8511, Japan.
Osteoporos Int. 2011 Dec;22(12):3037-45. doi: 10.1007/s00198-011-1537-x. Epub 2011 Jan 29.
We evaluated the predictive ability of FRAX® in a cohort of 815 Japanese women. The observed 10-year fracture rate did not differ significantly from that predicted by FRAX®. The predictive ability of FRAX® without femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD) was similar to that with femoral neck BMD.
We evaluated the ability of the Japanese version of FRAX®, a World Health Organization fracture risk assessment tool, to predict the 10-year probability of osteoporotic fracture.
Self-reported major osteoporotic fracture (N = 43) and hip fracture (N = 4) events were ascertained in the 10-year follow-up survey of the Japanese Population-Based Osteoporosis Cohort Study. Participants were 815 women aged 40-74 years at the baseline survey. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis compared FRAX® with multiple logistic models based on age, body weight, and femoral neck BMD.
The number of observed major osteoporotic or hip fracture events did not differ significantly from the number of events predicted by the FRAX® model (with or without BMD). The area under the curve (AUC) value for FRAX® with BMD for predicting major osteoporotic fractures was similar to that of a logistic model with age, body weight, and BMD (0.69 vs. 0.71, respectively; p = 0.198); the AUC of FRAX® with BMD for predicting hip fractures was similar to that of a model based on age and BMD (0.88 vs. 0.89, respectively; p = 0.164). The AUCs of FRAX® without BMD for predicting major osteoporotic and hip fractures were similar to those with BMD (0.69 vs. 0.67, respectively; p = 0.121; 0.88 vs. 0.86, respectively; p = 0.445).
The Japanese version of FRAX® without BMD estimated the 10-year probability of osteoporotic fracture in this population with few clinical risk factors as similar to that of FRAX® with BMD.
未使用股骨颈骨密度的 FRAX®预测能力与使用股骨颈骨密度的预测能力相似。
我们评估了世界卫生组织骨折风险评估工具 FRAX®的日本版本预测骨质疏松性骨折 10 年概率的能力。
在日本人群骨质疏松队列研究的 10 年随访调查中，确定了自我报告的主要骨质疏松性骨折（N=43）和髋部骨折（N=4）事件。参与者为基线调查时年龄在 40-74 岁的 815 名女性。受试者工作特征曲线分析比较了 FRAX®与基于年龄、体重和股骨颈骨密度的多逻辑模型。
观察到的主要骨质疏松性或髋部骨折事件数量与 FRAX®模型（使用或不使用 BMD）预测的事件数量无显著差异。FRAX®结合 BMD 预测主要骨质疏松性骨折的曲线下面积（AUC）值与基于年龄、体重和 BMD 的逻辑模型相似（分别为 0.69 与 0.71，p=0.198）；FRAX®结合 BMD 预测髋部骨折的 AUC 与基于年龄和 BMD 的模型相似（分别为 0.88 与 0.89，p=0.164）。FRAX®不结合 BMD 预测主要骨质疏松性和髋部骨折的 AUC 与结合 BMD 相似（分别为 0.69 与 0.67，p=0.121；0.88 与 0.86，p=0.445）。
在该人群中，FRAX®不结合 BMD 估计骨质疏松性骨折的 10 年概率与结合 BMD 的 FRAX®相似，该人群临床危险因素较少。
