Department of Psychology, University of Haifa, Haifa 31905, Israel.
J Exp Psychol Gen. 2011 Feb;140(1):117-39. doi: 10.1037/a0022171.
Two questions about subjective confidence in perceptual judgments are examined: the bases for these judgments and the reasons for their accuracy. Confidence in perceptual judgments has been claimed to rest on qualitatively different processes than confidence in memory tasks. However, predictions from a self-consistency model (SCM), which had been confirmed for general-information questions (Koriat, 2010) and social attitudes (Koriat & Adiv, 2010), are shown to hold true also for perceptual judgments. In SCM, confidence is modeled by the procedure for assessment of statistical level of confidence: For a 2-alternative, forced-choice item, confidence is based on the consistency with which the choice is favored across a sample of representations of the item, and acts as a monitor of the likelihood that a new sample will yield the same choice. Assuming that these representations are drawn from commonly shared populations of representations associated with each item, predictions regarding the basis of confidence were confirmed by results concerning the functions relating confidence and choice latency to interparticipant consensus and to intraparticipant consistency for majority and minority choices. With regard to the confidence-accuracy (C/A) relationship, the consensuality principle, documented for general-knowledge tasks (Koriat, 2008a), was replicated for perceptual judgments: Confidence correlated with the consensuality of the choice rather than with its correctness, suggesting that the C/A correlation is due to the relationship between confidence and self-consistency and is positive only as long as the correct choices are the consistently made choices. SCM provides a general model for the basis and accuracy of confidence judgments across different domains.
这些判断的基础和准确性的原因。人们认为，感知判断的信心建立在与记忆任务不同的质的基础上。然而，自我一致性模型（SCM）的预测，已经在一般性信息问题（Koriat，2010）和社会态度（Koriat 和 Adiv，2010）中得到证实，对于感知判断也同样适用。在 SCM 中，信心是通过评估统计置信水平的程序来建模的：对于二选一、强制选择项目，信心是基于选择在项目的表示样本中得到一致支持的程度，并且作为新样本产生相同选择的可能性的监视器。假设这些表示是从与每个项目相关的常见表示的共同群体中抽取出来的，那么关于信心基础的预测就通过以下结果得到了证实：关于信心和选择潜伏期与参与者间共识以及多数和少数选择的参与者内一致性的关系的函数；关于信心准确性（C/A）关系，共识性原则，在一般知识任务中得到了记录（Koriat，2008a），对于感知判断也得到了复制：信心与选择的共识性相关，而不是与正确性相关，这表明 C/A 相关性是由于信心和自我一致性之间的关系，并且只有在正确的选择是一致做出的选择时才是正相关的。SCM 为不同领域的信心判断的基础和准确性提供了一个通用模型。
