Kitchens Michael B, Corser Grant C, Gohm Carol L, VonWaldner Kristen L, Foreman Elizabeth L
Department of Psychology, Lebanon Valley College, 101 N. College Avenue, Annville, PA 17003-1400, USA.
Psychol Rep. 2010 Dec;107(3):837-46. doi: 10.2466/07.PR0.107.6.837-846.
People typically have intense feelings about politics. Therefore, it was no surprise that the campaign and eventual election of Barack Obama were highly anticipated and emotionally charged events, making it and the emotion experienced afterward a useful situation in which to replicate prior research showing that people typically overestimate the intensity and duration of their future affective states. Consequently, it was expected that Obama supporters and McCain supporters might overestimate the intensity of their affective responses to the outcome of the election. Data showed that while McCain supporters underestimated how happy they would be following the election, Obama supporters accurately predicted how happy they would be following the election. These data provide descriptive information on the accuracy of people's predicted reactions to the 2008 U.S. presidential election. The findings are discussed in the context of the broad literature and this specific and unique event.
人们通常对政治有着强烈的情感。因此，巴拉克·奥巴马的竞选活动以及最终当选备受期待且充满情感波澜，这使其成为一个有用的情境，可用于重现先前的研究，该研究表明人们通常会高估自己未来情感状态的强度和持续时间。所以，预计奥巴马的支持者和麦凯恩的支持者可能会高估他们对选举结果的情感反应强度。数据显示，麦凯恩的支持者低估了选举后他们会有多高兴，而奥巴马的支持者准确地预测了选举后他们会有多高兴。这些数据提供了有关人们对2008年美国总统大选预测反应准确性的描述性信息。研究结果将在广泛的文献以及这一具体独特事件的背景下进行讨论。
