College of Environmental Science and Forestry, State University of New York, Syracuse, New York, USA.
Ann N Y Acad Sci. 2011 Feb;1219:52-72. doi: 10.1111/j.1749-6632.2010.05940.x.
Economic growth over the past 40 years has used increasing quantities of fossil energy, and most importantly oil. Yet, our ability to increase the global supply of conventional crude oil much beyond current levels is doubtful, which may pose a problem for continued economic growth. Our research indicates that, due to the depletion of conventional, and hence cheap, crude oil supplies (i.e., peak oil), increasing the supply of oil in the future would require exploiting lower quality resources (i.e., expensive), and thus could occur only at high prices. This situation creates a system of feedbacks that can be aptly described as an economic growth paradox: increasing the oil supply to support economic growth will require high oil prices that will undermine that economic growth. From this we conclude that the economic growth of the past 40 years is unlikely to continue in the long term unless there is some remarkable change in how we manage our economy.
过去 40 年来，经济增长一直依赖于不断增加的化石能源，尤其是石油。然而，我们增加全球常规原油供应的能力远远超出了当前水平，这可能会对经济的持续增长构成问题。我们的研究表明，由于常规原油（即廉价的“峰值石油”）供应枯竭，未来增加石油供应将需要开发质量较低的资源（即昂贵的资源），因此，只有在高油价的情况下才可能实现。这种情况造成了一种反馈系统，可以恰当地描述为经济增长悖论：为了支持经济增长而增加石油供应，将需要高油价，而这又将破坏经济增长。因此，我们的结论是，除非我们在管理经济的方式上发生一些显著的变化，否则过去 40 年的经济增长不太可能长期持续。
