Arndt-Corden Department of Economics, Crawford School of Economics and Government, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.
Ann N Y Acad Sci. 2011 Feb;1219:26-51. doi: 10.1111/j.1749-6632.2010.05921.x.
This paper reviews the mainstream, resource economics, and ecological economics models of growth. A possible synthesis of energy-based and mainstream models is presented. This shows that when energy is scarce it imposes a strong constraint on the growth of the economy; however, when energy is abundant, its effect on economic growth is much reduced. The industrial revolution released the constraints on economic growth by the development of new methods of using coal and the discovery of new fossil fuel resources. Time-series analysis shows that energy and GDP cointegrate, and energy use Granger causes GDP when capital and other production inputs are included in the vector autoregression model. However, various mechanisms can weaken the links between energy and growth. Energy used per unit of economic output has declined in developed and some developing countries, owing to both technological change and a shift from poorer quality fuels, such as coal, to the use of higher quality fuels, especially electricity. Substitution of other inputs for energy and sectoral shifts in economic activity play smaller roles.
本文回顾了主流、资源经济学和生态经济学的增长模型。提出了一种基于能源和主流模型的可能综合。这表明，当能源稀缺时，它对经济增长施加了很强的约束；然而，当能源充足时，其对经济增长的影响大大降低。工业革命通过开发新的煤炭利用方法和发现新的化石燃料资源，释放了对经济增长的约束。时间序列分析表明，能源和 GDP 协整，并且当在向量自回归模型中包含资本和其他生产投入时，能源使用格兰杰导致 GDP。然而，各种机制可以削弱能源和增长之间的联系。由于技术变革和从质量较差的燃料（如煤炭）向质量较高的燃料（特别是电力）的转变，发达和一些发展中国家的单位经济产出所消耗的能源已经减少。其他投入对能源的替代和经济活动的部门转移作用较小。
