Department of Public Policy, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
Sci Total Environ. 2011 Apr 15;409(10):1774-85. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.01.051. Epub 2011 Feb 21.
Since the 1990s, the capital city of Thailand, Bangkok has been suffering from severe ambient particulate matter (PM) pollution mainly attributable to its wide use of diesel-fueled vehicles and motorcycles with poor emission performance. While the Thai government strives to reduce emissions from transportation through enforcing policy measures, the link between specific control policies and associated health impacts is inadequately studied. This link is especially important in exploring the co-benefits of greenhouse gas emissions reductions, which often brings reduction in other pollutants such as PM. This paper quantifies the health benefits potentially achieved by the new PM-related I/M programs targeting all diesel vehicles and motorcycles in the Bangkok Metropolitan Area (BMA). The benefits are estimated by using a framework that integrates policy scenario development, exposure assessment, exposure-response assessment and economic valuation. The results indicate that the total health damage due to the year 2000 PM emissions from vehicles in the BMA was equivalent to 2.4% of Thailand's GDP. Under the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, total vehicular PM emissions in the BMA will increase considerably over time due to the rapid growth in vehicle population, even if the fleet average emission rates are projected to decrease over time as the result of participation of Thailand in post-Copenhagen climate change strategies. By 2015, the total health damage is estimated to increase by 2.5 times relative to the year 2000. However, control policies targeting PM emissions from automobiles, such as the PM-oriented I/M programs, could yield substantial health benefits relative to the BAU scenario, and serve as co-benefits of greenhouse gas control strategies. Despite uncertainty associated with the key assumptions used to estimate benefits, we find that with a high level confidence, the I/M programs will produce health benefits whose economic impacts considerably outweigh the expenditures on policy implementation.
自 20 世纪 90 年代以来，泰国首都曼谷一直饱受严重的环境颗粒物（PM）污染之苦，主要原因是其广泛使用排放性能较差的柴油燃料车辆和摩托车。虽然泰国政府通过实施政策措施努力减少交通运输排放，但特定控制政策与相关健康影响之间的联系研究不足。在探索温室气体减排的共同效益时，这一联系尤为重要，因为温室气体减排通常会减少 PM 等其他污染物。本文通过整合政策情景开发、暴露评估、暴露-反应评估和经济评估的框架，量化了新的与 PM 相关的 I/M 计划针对曼谷大都市区（BMA）所有柴油车辆和摩托车所带来的健康效益。结果表明，由于 BMA 车辆 2000 年 PM 排放造成的总健康损害相当于泰国 GDP 的 2.4%。在照常营业（BAU）情景下，由于车辆数量的快速增长，BMA 中的车辆总 PM 排放量将随着时间的推移而大大增加，即使车队平均排放率预计随着泰国参与后哥本哈根气候变化战略而随着时间的推移而降低。到 2015 年，总健康损害预计将比 2000 年增加 2.5 倍。然而，针对汽车 PM 排放的控制政策，如面向 PM 的 I/M 计划，可以带来相对于 BAU 情景的大量健康效益，并作为温室气体控制战略的共同效益。尽管用于估计效益的关键假设存在不确定性，但我们发现，在高度置信水平下，I/M 计划将产生的健康效益的经济影响远远超过政策实施的支出。
