Modelling the spatial spread of H7N1 avian influenza virus among poultry farms in Italy.

We analysed the between-farm transmission of the H7N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus that disrupted the Italian poultry production in the 1999-2000 epidemic with a SEIR model with a spatial transmission kernel, accounting for the containment measures actually undertaken. We found significant differences in susceptibility between species and a reduction in transmissibility after the first phase. We performed simulations to assess the effectiveness of the implemented and new control measures. The most effective measure was the ban on restocking. An earlier start of pre-emptive culling promotes eradication; restricted pre-emptive culling delays eradication but causes lower losses.