Institute of Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia
Nephrol Dial Transplant. 2011 Oct;26(10):3171-6. doi: 10.1093/ndt/gfr059. Epub 2011 Feb 25.
Balkan endemic nephropathy (BEN) is a familial chronic kidney disease, which occurs only in some regions of the Balkan Peninsula. The aim of this study was to determine the main epidemiological features of BEN in the Kolubara region, the most affected region in Serbia, and to try to elucidate the controversial issue of whether or not BEN is tapering off.
To evaluate the BEN incidence rates in the municipality of Lazarevac over a 33-year period (1977-2009), we used data of BEN notifications from the BEN Registry located in the Special Hospital for Endemic Nephropathy, Lazarevac. Population data were obtained from the 1981, 1991 and 2002 national censuses by interpolation. BEN incidence rates were standardized according to the European standard population, and their trends were assessed by Poisson regression model and joinpoint analysis.
The age-adjusted BEN incidence rates combined for both sexes over a 33-year period (1977-2009) fitted a significant quadratic (U-shaped) trend (y = 58.44 - 3.76 + 0.10x(2), P = 0.026). Joinpoint analysis showed that the overall age-standardized BEN incidence rates significantly decreased in the first decade of the observed period (1977-89) by an average of 10.0% annually, while a nonsignificant increase of 3.9% per year was recorded in the last two decades (1989-2009).
Our results revealed that BEN still exists in the Kolubara region. The predicted disappearing scenario of this still mysterious disease has not happened.
巴尔干地方性肾病（BEN）是一种家族性慢性肾病，仅发生在巴尔干半岛的某些地区。本研究的目的是确定塞尔维亚受影响最严重的科卢巴拉地区 BEN 的主要流行病学特征，并试图阐明 BEN 是否正在逐渐减少这一有争议的问题。
为了评估 Lazarevac 市 33 年来（1977-2009 年）的 BEN 发病率，我们使用了位于 Lazarevac 地方性肾病专科医院的 BEN 登记处的 BEN 通知数据。人口数据通过内插法从 1981 年、1991 年和 2002 年的全国人口普查中获得。BEN 发病率根据欧洲标准人口进行标准化，并通过泊松回归模型和连接点分析评估其趋势。
33 年来（1977-2009 年），男女合并的年龄调整 BEN 发病率拟合出一个显著的二次（U 形）趋势（y = 58.44-3.76+0.10x(2)，P = 0.026）。连接点分析显示，在观察期的前十年（1977-89 年），总体年龄标准化的 BEN 发病率以每年 10.0%的速度显著下降，而在后二十年（1989-2009 年），每年以 3.9%的速度录得无显著意义的增加。
我们的结果表明，BEN 仍在科卢巴拉地区存在。这种仍然神秘的疾病消失的预测情景并未发生。
