University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, USA.
Soc Psychiatry Psychiatr Epidemiol. 2012 Mar;47(3):487-503. doi: 10.1007/s00127-011-0356-x. Epub 2011 Feb 26.
A general consensus exists that severe mental illness (SMI) increases violence risk. However, a recent report claimed that SMI "alone was not statistically related to future violence in bivariate or multivariate analyses." We reanalyze the data used to make this claim with a focus on causal relationships between SMI and violence, rather than the statistical prediction of violence.
Data are from the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC), a two-wave study (N = 34,653: Wave 1: 2001-2003; Wave 2: 2004-2005). Indicators of mental disorder in the year prior to Wave 1 were used to examine violence between Waves 1 and 2.
Those with SMI, irrespective of substance abuse status, were significantly more likely to be violent than those with no mental or substance use disorders. This finding held in both bivariate and multivariable models. Those with comorbid mental and substance use disorders had the highest risk of violence. Historical and current conditions were also associated with violence, including childhood abuse and neglect, household antisocial behavior, binge drinking and stressful life events.
These results, in contrast to a recently published report, show that the NESARC data are consistent with the consensus view on mental disorder and violence: there is a statistically significant, yet modest relationship between SMI (within 12 months) and violence, and a stronger relationship between SMI with substance use disorder and violence. These results also highlight the importance of premorbid conditions, and other contemporaneous clinical factors, in violent behavior.
普遍认为严重精神疾病(SMI)会增加暴力风险。然而,最近的一份报告声称,“在双变量或多变量分析中,SMI 本身与未来暴力并无统计学上的关联”。我们重新分析了用于做出这一结论的数据,重点关注 SMI 与暴力之间的因果关系,而不是暴力的统计预测。
数据来自国家酒精和相关情况流行病学调查(NESARC),这是一项两波研究(N=34653:波 1:2001-2003;波 2:2004-2005)。使用波 1 前一年的精神障碍指标来检验波 1 和波 2 之间的暴力行为。
无论是否存在物质滥用,患有 SMI 的人比没有精神或物质使用障碍的人更有可能实施暴力行为。这一发现无论是在双变量还是多变量模型中都成立。患有共病性精神和物质使用障碍的人暴力风险最高。既往和当前的情况也与暴力有关,包括儿童期虐待和忽视、家庭反社会行为、狂饮和生活压力事件。
与最近发表的一份报告相反,这些结果表明 NESARC 数据与关于精神障碍和暴力的共识观点一致:SMI(在 12 个月内)与暴力之间存在统计学上显著但适度的关系,而 SMI 与物质使用障碍和暴力之间的关系更强。这些结果还强调了既往疾病状况以及其他同时存在的临床因素在暴力行为中的重要性。