University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27514, USA.
Oncology (Williston Park). 2011 Jan;25(1):38-43, 46.
To estimate the"age" of cancers at the time of diagnosis, we reviewed data on the "time to local/regional recurrence" (LRF) following initial surgical resection for three common cancers, then applied a modified version of Collins' law. We conducted a systematic review of English medical literature to identify studies reporting LRF rates, over time, following surgery alone for breast, lung, or colorectal cancer. Patients who received radiation/hormones/chemotherapy were excluded since these therapies may alter tumor growth kinetics after surgery. For each disease, data were considered in three ways: 1) absolute cumulative LRF rate over time; 2) percentage of LRFs manifest over time (to facilitate comparisons between studies with different absolute magnitudes of LRFs); and 3) weighted average of the percentage of LRFs manifest over time. For breast cancer (based on data from 3043 patients from 5 studies), we found that the median time to LRF was 2.7 years. For lung cancer (based on data from 1190 patients from 4 studies), the median time to LRF was 1.5 years. For rectal cancer (based on data from 3334 patients from 10 studies), the median time to LRF was 1.5 years. Based on Collins' law, the distribution of time to LRF suggests that the age of most of the solid tumors studied was 3 to 6 years.
为了估算癌症在诊断时的“年龄”，我们回顾了三种常见癌症初始手术切除后“局部/区域复发（LRF）时间”的数据，然后应用了柯林斯定律的修改版本。我们对英文医学文献进行了系统回顾，以确定单独手术治疗乳腺癌、肺癌或结直肠癌后随时间推移报告 LRF 率的研究。排除接受放疗/激素/化疗的患者，因为这些疗法可能会改变手术后肿瘤的生长动力学。对于每种疾病，我们以三种方式考虑数据：1）随时间推移的绝对累积 LRF 率；2）随时间推移表现出的 LRF 百分比（便于比较 LRF 绝对值不同的研究）；3）随时间推移表现出的 LRF 百分比的加权平均值。对于乳腺癌（基于来自 5 项研究的 3043 名患者的数据），我们发现 LRF 的中位时间为 2.7 年。对于肺癌（基于来自 4 项研究的 1190 名患者的数据），LRF 的中位时间为 1.5 年。对于直肠癌（基于来自 10 项研究的 3334 名患者的数据），LRF 的中位时间为 1.5 年。根据柯林斯定律，LRF 时间分布表明，所研究的大多数实体瘤的年龄为 3 至 6 岁。
