Ruf M, Delpech V, Osuagwu U, Brown A E, Robinson E, Chadborn T
Department of Public Health, NHS Lambeth, London, UK.
Int J STD AIDS. 2011 Jan;22(1):25-9. doi: 10.1258/ijsa.2010.010181.
The objective of this study was to estimate local at-risk populations of men who have sex with men (MSM) in London primary care trusts (PCTs) to inform the commissioning of targeted health interventions. Estimated population size and prevalence of diagnosed HIV in MSM in all of London were calculated using data from the British National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (NATSAL), Greater London Authority population estimates and the annual survey of diagnosed MSM (Survey of Prevalent HIV Infections Diagnosed [SOPHID]). Estimated MSM population sizes at the PCT level were calculated using un-weighted and SOPHID-weighted methods and methods discussed. Four-fifths of MSM with diagnosed HIV infection in Greater London lived in inner London. Estimated population size of MSM 16-44 years in inner London was 66,000; estimated overall prevalence of diagnosed HIV infection among MSM was 9.5%. Our models show substantial variation at the PCT level between the two methods. Using the SOPHID-weighted method MSM account for up to 16% of the male population in some London PCTs, compared with as low as 3% in others. We provide a novel method of estimating at-risk MSM populations living in inner London PCTs indicating that proportions of MSM vary widely between PCTs. Significant proportions of MSM among the resident populations in several PCTs warrant inclusion of MSM health needs in core PCT prevention and service programming. In light of data source limitations further validation studies are needed.
本研究的目的是估计伦敦初级保健信托基金（PCT）中男男性行为者（MSM）的本地高危人群，以为有针对性的健康干预措施的委托提供信息。利用英国全国性态度和生活方式调查（NATSAL）的数据、大伦敦管理局的人口估计数以及已确诊MSM的年度调查（已确诊艾滋病毒感染调查[SOPHID]），计算了伦敦所有地区MSM的估计人口规模和确诊艾滋病毒的患病率。使用未加权和SOPHID加权方法以及所讨论的方法，计算了PCT层面的估计MSM人口规模。大伦敦地区五分之四的已确诊艾滋病毒感染的MSM居住在伦敦市中心。伦敦市中心16 - 44岁MSM的估计人口规模为66,000人；MSM中确诊艾滋病毒感染的估计总体患病率为9.5%。我们的模型显示，两种方法在PCT层面存在很大差异。使用SOPHID加权方法，在伦敦的一些PCT中，MSM占男性人口的比例高达16%，而在其他PCT中低至3%。我们提供了一种估计居住在伦敦市中心PCT中高危MSM人群的新方法，表明不同PCT中MSM的比例差异很大。几个PCT常住人口中相当比例的MSM，有必要将MSM的健康需求纳入PCT核心预防和服务规划中。鉴于数据来源的局限性，需要进一步的验证研究。
