Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut, Federal Research Institute for Animal Health, Seestr. 55, 16868 Wusterhausen, Germany.
Vet Parasitol. 2011 Jun 30;179(1-3):77-83. doi: 10.1016/j.vetpar.2011.01.065. Epub 2011 Mar 1.
A total of 26,220 foxes that were hunted or found dead in Thuringia, Germany, between 1990 and 2009 were examined for infection with Echinococcus multilocularis, the causative agent of human alveolar echinococcosis, and 6853 animals were found infected. The available data on the foxes including the location (local community; district) and the date of hunting/death were analyzed using a hierarchical Bayesian space-time model. The distribution of the model parameters and their variability was estimated on the basis of the sample size, the number of cases per spatial unit and time interval, and an adjacency matrix of the municipalities using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation technique to assess the spatial and temporal changes in the distribution of the parasite. The model used to evaluate the data is widely applicable and can be applied to analyse data sets with gaps and variable sample sizes per spatial and temporal unit. In the study area, the prevalence of E. multilocularis increased from 11.9% (95% confidence interval 9.9-14.0%) in 1990 to 42.0% (39.1-44.1%) in 2005. While the infection was present in foxes only in the north-western parts of Thuringia in 1990, it had spread over the entire state by 2004. These results demand increased vigilance for human alveolar echinococcosis in Thuringia.
1990 年至 2009 年间，德国图林根州共检查了 26220 只被猎捕或发现死亡的狐狸，以检测其是否感染多房棘球绦虫（人类泡型包虫病的病原体），发现其中 6853 只被感染。利用分层贝叶斯时空模型，对包括位置（地方社区；地区）和猎捕/死亡日期在内的狐狸相关数据进行了分析。基于样本量、每个空间单位和时间间隔的病例数以及各市镇的邻接矩阵，利用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗模拟技术，对模型参数的分布及其变异性进行了估计，以评估寄生虫分布的时空变化。用于评估数据的模型具有广泛的适用性，可用于分析存在数据缺口和每个时空单位样本量不同的数据集。在研究区域，1990 年多房棘球绦虫的流行率为 11.9%（95%置信区间 9.9-14.0%），到 2005 年上升至 42.0%（39.1-44.1%）。1990 年，感染仅存在于图林根州的西北部，到 2004 年已蔓延至全州。这些结果要求在图林根州对人类泡型包虫病保持高度警惕。
