British Columbia Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS, St, Paul's Hospital, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.
AIDS Res Ther. 2011 Mar 7;8:13. doi: 10.1186/1742-6405-8-13.
HIV/AIDS has orphaned 11.6 million children in sub-Saharan Africa. Expanded antiretroviral therapy (ART) use may reduce AIDS orphanhood by decreasing adult mortality and population-level HIV transmission.
We modeled two scenarios to measure the impact of adult ART use on the incidence of orphanhood in 10 sub-Saharan African countries, from 2009 to 2020. Demographic model data inputs were obtained from cohort studies, UNAIDS, UN Population Division, WHO and the US Census Bureau.
Compared to current rates of ART uptake, universal ART access averted 4.37 million more AIDS orphans by year 2020, including 3.15 million maternal, 1.89 million paternal and 0.75 million double orphans. The number of AIDS orphans averted was highest in South Africa (901.71 thousand) and Nigeria (839.01 thousand), and lowest in Zimbabwe (86.96 thousand) and Côte d'Ivoire (109.12 thousand).
Universal ART use may significantly reduce orphanhood in sub-Saharan Africa.
艾滋病毒/艾滋病在撒哈拉以南非洲地区造成 1160 万儿童成为孤儿。扩大抗逆转录病毒疗法（ART）的使用可能会通过降低成人死亡率和人群中艾滋病毒传播率来减少艾滋病孤儿的数量。
我们建立了两种情景模型，以衡量撒哈拉以南非洲 10 个国家在 2009 年至 2020 年期间，成人接受抗逆转录病毒治疗对孤儿产生率的影响。人口统计模型数据输入来自队列研究、艾滋病规划署、联合国人口司、世界卫生组织和美国人口普查局。
与目前的抗逆转录病毒治疗使用率相比，到 2020 年，普及抗逆转录病毒治疗可以避免新增 437 万艾滋病孤儿，其中包括 315 万因艾滋病成为孤儿的母亲、189 万因艾滋病成为孤儿的父亲和 75 万双亲孤儿。南非（901.71 万）和尼日利亚（839.01 万）避免的艾滋病孤儿数量最多，而津巴布韦（86.96 万）和科特迪瓦（109.12 万）避免的孤儿数量最少。
普及抗逆转录病毒治疗可能会显著减少撒哈拉以南非洲地区的孤儿数量。
