University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute, 2901 Baxter Rd., Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2150, USA.
J Safety Res. 2011 Feb;42(1):9-16. doi: 10.1016/j.jsr.2010.11.002. Epub 2010 Dec 25.
Since 1990, fatal animal-vehicle collisions (AVCs) in the United States have more than doubled. This paper examines annual AVC trends in the United States over a 19-year period, seasonal and diurnal patterns of AVC risk, the geographic distribution of crash risk by state, and the association between posted speed limit and AVC crash risk in darkness.
AVCs were compiled from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) and the General Estimates System (GES) for the years 1990-2008 to examine annual crash trends for fatal and nonfatal crashes. Seasonal trends for fatal AVCs were examined with the aggregated FARS dataset; seasonal trends for fatal and nonfatal AVCs were also examined by aggregating four years of Michigan crash data. State-by-state distributions of fatal AVCs were also described with the aggregated FARS dataset. Finally, the relationship between posted speed limit and the odds that a fatal or nonfatal AVC occurred in darkness were examined with logistic regressions using the aggregated FARS and Michigan datasets.
Between 1990 and 2008, fatal AVCs increased by 104% and by 1.3 crashes per trillion vehicle miles travelled per year. Although not all AVCs involve deer, daily and seasonal AVC crash trends follow the general activity pattern of deer populations, consistent with prior reports. The odds that a fatal AVC occurred in darkness were also found to increase by 2.3% for each mile-per-hour increase in speed; a similar, albeit smaller, effect was also observed in the aggregated Michigan dataset, among nonfatal crashes.
AVCs represent a small but increasing share of crashes in the United States. Seasonal and daily variation in the pattern of AVCs seem to follow variation in deer exposure and ambient light level. Finally, the relative risk that a fatal and nonfatal AVC occurred in darkness is influenced by posted speed limit, suggesting that a driver's limited forward vision at night plays a role in AVCs, as it does in pedestrian collisions.
The association between speed limit and crash risk in darkness suggests that AVC risk might be reduced with countermeasures that improve a driver's forward view of the road.
自 1990 年以来，美国致命的动物-车辆碰撞（AVC）事故增加了一倍多。本文研究了美国 19 年来 AVC 趋势的年度变化，AVC 风险的季节性和昼夜模式，各州的碰撞风险地理分布，以及在黑暗中公布的限速与 AVC 碰撞风险之间的关系。
从 1990 年至 2008 年的《伤亡分析报告系统》（FARS）和《通用估计系统》（GES）中汇编了 AVC 数据，以研究致命和非致命事故的年度碰撞趋势。使用汇总的 FARS 数据集检查了致命 AVC 的季节性趋势；通过汇总四年密歇根州的碰撞数据，还检查了致命和非致命 AVC 的季节性趋势。使用汇总的 FARS 数据集还描述了致命 AVC 在美国各州的分布情况。最后，使用汇总的 FARS 和密歇根州数据集，使用逻辑回归检查了公布的限速与致命或非致命 AVC 发生在黑暗中的几率之间的关系。
在 1990 年至 2008 年期间，致命的 AVC 增加了 104％，每年每万亿车辆英里行驶增加了 1.3 次。尽管并非所有 AVC 都涉及鹿，但每日和季节性 AVC 碰撞趋势都遵循鹿种群的一般活动模式，这与先前的报告一致。还发现，每小时增加 1 英里，致命 AVC 发生在黑暗中的几率增加 2.3％；在密歇根州的汇总数据中，非致命事故中也观察到了类似的，尽管较小的影响。
AVC 在美国的碰撞中占很小但在不断增加的比例。AVC 模式的季节性和每日变化似乎与鹿暴露和环境光照水平的变化有关。最后，致命和非致命的 AVC 在黑暗中发生的相对风险受到公布的限速的影响，这表明驾驶员在夜间向前看的视野有限，这在 AVC 中起作用，就像在行人碰撞中一样。
速度限制与黑暗中碰撞风险之间的关系表明，通过采取措施改善驾驶员对道路的前方视野，可能会降低 AVC 风险。
