School of Public Health, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, PR China.
J Adolesc Health. 2011 Apr;48(4):418-20. doi: 10.1016/j.jadohealth.2010.07.017. Epub 2010 Oct 8.
To investigate the relationship between perceived prevalence of smoking and smoking initiation among Hong Kong primary second- to fourth-grade-students.
A cohort of 2,171 students was surveyed in 2006 and again in 2008. Students who perceived ever-smoking prevalence in peers as "none" or "some" were considered as correct (reference group), whereas those who perceived it as "half" (overestimation) or "most/all" (gross overestimation) were considered as incorrect.
At baseline, overestimation was found to be cross-sectionally associated with ever-smoking (p < .01). At follow-up, 7.2% of never-smoking students with incorrect estimation at baseline had started smoking, which was 79% (95% confidence interval: 3%-213%), greater than that of 3.7% for those with correct estimation. Among the never-smoking students with incorrect estimation, subsequent correct estimation was associated with 70% (95% confidence interval: 47%-83%) lower risk of smoking initiation compared with persistent incorrect estimation.
Overestimation of the prevalence of peer smoking predicted smoking initiation among children. Interventions should be carried out to evaluate whether correcting children's overestimation of peer smoking could reduce smoking initiation.
调查香港小学二至四年级学生对吸烟流行率的感知与开始吸烟之间的关系。
对 2171 名学生进行了 2006 年和 2008 年的两次调查。认为同伴中“无”或“有”人吸烟的学生被视为正确（参考组），而认为“一半”（高估）或“大多数/全部”（严重高估）的学生则被视为不正确。
在基线时，发现高估与曾吸烟呈横断面相关（p<.01）。在随访中，基线时估计错误的从不吸烟学生中有 7.2%开始吸烟，这一比例比估计正确的学生高出 79%（95%置信区间：3%-213%）。在从不吸烟且估计错误的学生中，随后的正确估计与吸烟起始风险降低 70%（95%置信区间：47%-83%）相关，而持续错误估计则与之相反。
高估同伴吸烟的流行率预测了儿童开始吸烟。应开展干预措施，评估纠正儿童对同伴吸烟的高估是否能降低吸烟起始率。
