Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche Mario Negri, Milan, Italy.
Oral Oncol. 2011 May;47(5):400-7. doi: 10.1016/j.oraloncology.2010.06.010. Epub 2011 Mar 12.
Over the last decade, mortality from oral and pharyngeal cancer has been declining in most European countries, but it had been increasing substantially in Hungary, Slovakia and a few other countries of central Europe, reaching rates comparable to those of lung cancer in several western European countries in males. To update trends in oral cancer mortality and further analyse the recent epidemic in central Europe, official death certifications for oral and pharyngeal cancer for 37 European countries were derived over the period 1970-2007, and an age-period-cohort model was fitted for selected countries. Male oral cancer mortality continued to decline in most European countries, including the Russian Federation, and, more importantly, it also started to decline in some of the countries with the highest male rates, i.e. Hungary and Slovakia; persisting rises were, however, observed in Belarus, Bulgaria and Romania. Oral cancer mortality rates for women were lower than in men and showed no appreciable trend over recent periods in the EU overall. Estimates from the age-period-cohort analysis for most selected countries showed a fall in effects for the cohorts born after the 1950s. For the period effect displayed a rise for the earlier periods, an inversion in the 1990 s and a continuous fall up to the last studied period. Only some former non-market economy countries, like Romania, Ukraine and Lithuania, had rising cohort effect trends up to most recent generations. The major finding of this updated analysis of oral cancer mortality is the leveling of the epidemic for men in most European countries, including Hungary and other central European countries, where mortality from this cancer was exceedingly high. These trends essentially reflect the changes in alcohol and tobacco consumption in various populations.
在过去的十年中，大多数欧洲国家的口腔和咽癌死亡率一直在下降，但在匈牙利、斯洛伐克和其他一些中欧国家，死亡率却大幅上升，在男性中达到了与一些西欧国家肺癌相当的水平。为了更新口腔癌死亡率的趋势，并进一步分析中欧最近的流行情况，我们对 37 个欧洲国家 1970 年至 2007 年期间的口腔和咽癌官方死亡证明进行了分析，并对选定的国家进行了年龄-时期-队列模型拟合。大多数欧洲国家（包括俄罗斯联邦）的男性口腔癌死亡率继续下降，更重要的是，一些男性死亡率最高的国家（如匈牙利和斯洛伐克）的死亡率也开始下降；然而，在白俄罗斯、保加利亚和罗马尼亚，死亡率仍在持续上升。女性口腔癌死亡率低于男性，在欧盟范围内，最近一段时间没有明显的趋势。大多数选定国家的年龄-时期-队列分析估计显示，出生于 20 世纪 50 年代以后的队列的影响下降。对于时期效应，显示出早期时期的上升，20 世纪 90 年代的反转，以及最后研究时期的持续下降。只有一些前非市场经济国家，如罗马尼亚、乌克兰和立陶宛，直到最近几代人的队列效应趋势才上升。这项关于口腔癌死亡率的最新分析的主要发现是，包括匈牙利和其他中欧国家在内的大多数欧洲国家的男性口腔癌流行情况趋于平稳，这些国家的这种癌症死亡率非常高。这些趋势主要反映了不同人群中酒精和烟草消费的变化。
