中欧酒精和烟草相关癌症死亡率预测。

Projections of alcohol- and tobacco-related cancer mortality in Central Europe.

作者信息

Bray I, Brennan P, Boffetta P

机构信息

Unit of Environmental Cancer Epidemiology, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.

出版信息

Int J Cancer. 2000 Jul 1;87(1):122-8. doi: 10.1002/1097-0215(20000701)87:1<122::aid-ijc18>3.0.co;2-w.

Abstract

Central European mortality rates for cancer sites related to tobacco and alcohol have increased rapidly in recent decades. From a public health point of view, it is of considerable interest to know whether these past increases in cancer mortality will continue into the future. Cancer mortality rates for the period 1965-1994 in Bulgaria, Czech Republic and Slovakia (analysed together), Hungary, Poland, and Romania were analysed for cancers of the larynx, oral cavity and pharynx, oesophagus, bladder, kidney, and pancreas. Using a Bayesian age-period-cohort approach, we have calculated smoothed observed rates. The effects of period and cohort were extrapolated to estimate mortality projections for 1995-99, 2004-09, and 2005-09. Mortality rates for all sites are projected to increase in most countries. Hungary has the highest projected rates for most sites, and particularly rapid increases are expected for cancers of the oral cavity and pharynx and of the larynx in Hungarian men. The smoothed 1990-94 male mortality rates for these two sites of 16. 32/100,000 and 8.70/100,000, respectively, are projected to reach 35. 17/100,000 for cancer of the oral cavity and pharynx and 14.12/100, 000 for cancer of the larynx by the period 2000-04. For kidney cancer, former Czechoslovakia has the highest observed and projected mortality rates. The smoothed 1990-94 rate of 8.37/100,000 is expected to increase 24% to 10.38/100,000 by 2000-04. Our results indicate that further increases may be expected on top of the already high cancer mortality levels in Central Europe. Policies to reduce alcohol consumption and prevent smoking in younger generations are necessary to reduce mortality as these cohorts age.

摘要

近几十年来,中欧与烟草和酒精相关癌症部位的死亡率迅速上升。从公共卫生角度来看,了解过去癌症死亡率的上升趋势是否会在未来持续下去具有相当重要的意义。对保加利亚、捷克共和国和斯洛伐克(合并分析)、匈牙利、波兰和罗马尼亚1965 - 1994年期间喉癌、口腔癌和咽癌、食管癌、膀胱癌、肾癌和胰腺癌的癌症死亡率进行了分析。采用贝叶斯年龄 - 时期 - 队列方法,我们计算了平滑观察率。通过外推时期和队列的影响来估计1995 - 99年、2004 - 09年和2005 - 09年的死亡率预测。预计大多数国家所有部位的死亡率都会上升。匈牙利大多数部位的预测死亡率最高,预计匈牙利男性口腔癌和咽癌以及喉癌的死亡率将尤其迅速上升。这两个部位1990 - 94年男性平滑死亡率分别为16.32/10万和8.70/10万,预计到2000 - 04年,口腔癌和咽癌将达到35.17/10万,喉癌将达到14.12/10万。对于肾癌,前捷克斯洛伐克的观察死亡率和预测死亡率最高。平滑后的1990 - 94年死亡率为8.37/10万,预计到2000 - 04年将上升24%,达到10.38/10万。我们的结果表明,在中欧已经很高的癌症死亡率基础上,可能还会进一步上升。随着这些队列年龄的增长,减少酒精消费和防止年轻一代吸烟的政策对于降低死亡率是必要的。

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