Nigatu Tilahun, Abraha Mulu
African Medical and Research Foundation, Ethiopia.
East Afr J Public Health. 2010 Jun;7(2):182-6. doi: 10.4314/eajph.v7i2.64722.
Tuberculosis has been one the major causes of morbidity and mortality in Ethiopia for long. Accordingly, the Ethiopian Ministry of Health and its stakeholders have their unreserved and integrated efforts on this health problem. Among these efforts was the well developed HMIS for Tuberculosis programs. However, the direction to where Tuberculosis in Ethiopia is heading hasn't been well analyzed and unpackaged by epidemiologically relevant factors. The overall aim of this study was to examine the epidemiological trends of Tuberculosis in Ethiopia for the ten-year period from 2000-2009. The trends were investigated from spatial, temporal, disease type and gender perspectives. A time-series study design was applied to analyze the ten-year trends of Tuberculosis in Ethiopia. Data on ten-key indicators for the period of 2000-2009 was obtained from the Ministry of Health public documents. Five stratifying variables were used to analyze the trends in the key TB indicators. The data on the indicators have undergone five stages of analysis: Aggregation, computation, summarization, graphics and model fitting. The incidence rate of tuberculosis is increasing in Ethiopia at a rate of 5 new TB cases per 100,000 population per year. Urban agro-ecological zones have been more affected by the disease throughout the ten-year period. Extra-pulmonary rate and smear-negativity has shown a modest increment during the study period. Masculine gender was also disproportionately affected by tuberculosis during the ten-year study period. On the other hand case detection rate and treatment success rate are found to be increasing at a rate of 0.5% per year.
长期以来，结核病一直是埃塞俄比亚发病和死亡的主要原因之一。因此，埃塞俄比亚卫生部及其利益相关者为解决这一健康问题做出了毫无保留的综合努力。其中一项努力是为结核病项目精心开发的卫生管理信息系统（HMIS）。然而，埃塞俄比亚结核病的发展方向尚未通过流行病学相关因素进行充分分析和解读。本研究的总体目标是考察2000年至2009年这十年间埃塞俄比亚结核病的流行病学趋势。从空间、时间、疾病类型和性别角度对这些趋势进行了调查。采用时间序列研究设计来分析埃塞俄比亚结核病的十年趋势。2000年至2009年期间十个关键指标的数据来自卫生部的公开文件。使用五个分层变量来分析结核病关键指标的趋势。这些指标的数据经历了五个分析阶段：汇总、计算、总结、绘图和模型拟合。埃塞俄比亚的结核病发病率以每年每10万人口新增5例结核病病例的速度上升。在这十年期间，城市农业生态区受该疾病的影响更大。肺外发病率和涂片阴性率在研究期间略有上升。在这十年的研究期间，男性受结核病的影响也不成比例。另一方面，病例发现率和治疗成功率以每年0.5%的速度上升。
