Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems, University of Virginia Charlottesville, Virginia, USA.
Integr Environ Assess Manag. 2011 Apr;7(2):228-36. doi: 10.1002/ieam.137. Epub 2010 Dec 6.
Military and industrial facilities need secure and reliable power generation. Grid outages can result in cascading infrastructure failures as well as security breaches and should be avoided. Adding redundancy and increasing reliability can require additional environmental, financial, logistical, and other considerations and resources. Uncertain scenarios consisting of emergent environmental conditions, regulatory changes, growth of regional energy demands, and other concerns result in further complications. Decisions on selecting energy alternatives are made on an ad hoc basis. The present work integrates scenario analysis and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to identify combinations of impactful emergent conditions and to perform a preliminary benefits analysis of energy and environmental security investments for industrial and military installations. Application of a traditional MCDA approach would require significant stakeholder elicitations under multiple uncertain scenarios. The approach proposed in this study develops and iteratively adjusts a scoring function for investment alternatives to find the scenarios with the most significant impacts on installation security. A robust prioritization of investment alternatives can be achieved by integrating stakeholder preferences and focusing modeling and decision-analytical tools on a few key emergent conditions and scenarios. The approach is described and demonstrated for a campus of several dozen interconnected industrial buildings within a major installation.
军事和工业设施需要安全可靠的发电。电网故障可能导致基础设施故障的级联，以及安全漏洞，应予以避免。增加冗余并提高可靠性可能需要额外的环境、财务、后勤和其他考虑因素和资源。由紧急环境条件、法规变化、区域能源需求增长以及其他问题组成的不确定情况会导致进一步的复杂化。关于选择能源替代品的决策是临时做出的。本工作通过情景分析和多准则决策分析（MCDA）相结合，识别出有影响力的紧急情况的组合，并对工业和军事设施的能源和环境安全投资进行初步效益分析。应用传统的 MCDA 方法需要在多个不确定情景下进行大量的利益相关者调查。本研究中提出的方法为投资选择开发并迭代调整评分函数，以找到对设施安全影响最大的情景。通过整合利益相关者的偏好，并将建模和决策分析工具集中在少数几个关键的紧急情况和情景上，可以实现投资选择的稳健优先级排序。该方法针对一个主要设施内的几十个相互连接的工业建筑的校园进行了描述和演示。
