Dillon Robin L, Liebe Robert M, Bestafka Thomas
McDonough School of Business, Georgetown University, Washington, DC 20057, USA.
Risk Anal. 2009 Mar;29(3):321-35. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01196.x. Epub 2009 Jan 29.
This article describes the anti-terrorism risk-based decision aid (ARDA), a risk-based decision-making approach for prioritizing anti-terrorism measures. The ARDA model was developed as part of a larger effort to assess investments for protecting U.S. Navy assets at risk and determine whether the most effective anti-terrorism alternatives are being used to reduce the risk to the facilities and war-fighting assets. With ARDA and some support from subject matter experts, we examine thousands of scenarios composed of 15 attack modes against 160 facility types on two installations and hundreds of portfolios of 22 mitigation alternatives. ARDA uses multiattribute utility theory to solve some of the commonly identified challenges in security risk analysis. This article describes the process and documents lessons learned from applying the ARDA model for this application.
本文介绍了基于反恐风险的决策辅助工具（ARDA），这是一种用于确定反恐措施优先级的基于风险的决策方法。ARDA模型是作为一项更大努力的一部分而开发的，该努力旨在评估对处于风险中的美国海军资产的保护投资，并确定是否正在使用最有效的反恐替代方案来降低设施和作战资产面临的风险。借助ARDA并在主题专家的一些支持下，我们研究了数千种情景，这些情景由针对两个设施上160种设施类型的15种攻击模式以及22种缓解替代方案的数百种组合构成。ARDA使用多属性效用理论来解决安全风险分析中一些常见的挑战。本文描述了该过程，并记录了将ARDA模型应用于此应用所吸取的经验教训。
