Piquero Alex R, Shepherd Iona, Shepherd Jonathan P, Farrington David P
University of Texas at Dallas, Program in Criminology, Richardson, TX 75080, USA. (previously Florida State University, College of Criminology & Criminal Justice).
Crim Behav Ment Health. 2011 Jul;21(3):189-201. doi: 10.1002/cbm.810. Epub 2011 Mar 30.
An anti-social lifestyle has been found to be associated with a higher likelihood of injury but a lower likelihood of organic illness up to the age of 32 years. It is not known if these associations persist into the fifth decade nor whether adverse health conditions are differently distributed across distinct offending trajectories.
Hypotheses were that adverse health outcomes by the age of 48 years would vary across distinct trajectories and specifically that poor health would be most pronounced amongst the highest-rate chronic offenders, even after controlling for childhood individual and environmental risk factors.
Injury and illness data were collected prospectively from boys of age 8 years in the course of the longitudinal Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development.
By the age of 48 years, offending trajectories differed significantly from one another on two specific health outcomes: being registered disabled and hospitalisation. High-rate chronic offenders had the highest risk for both of these outcomes. Logistic regression modelling ruled out individual or environmental childhood risk factors for offending as a likely common cause of the health problems.
The findings suggest that high-rate chronic offending may in itself create the substrate for hospitalisation and registered disability. We express some caution about the limitations imposed on the research by the small size of this specific group of interest, but suggest that the findings may indicate a case for the various agencies likely to be involved with such men - health, social services and the criminal justice system - working together in a public health model to focus on improving the chances of limiting offending to adolescence within the sub-group of persons at high risk for life-course persistent offending.
研究发现，在32岁之前，反社会的生活方式与受伤可能性较高相关，但与器质性疾病可能性较低相关。目前尚不清楚这些关联是否会持续到五十岁，也不清楚不良健康状况在不同的犯罪轨迹中分布是否不同。
假设是48岁时的不良健康结果在不同轨迹中会有所不同，具体而言，即使在控制了儿童时期的个人和环境风险因素之后，健康状况不佳在高频率慢性犯罪者中最为明显。
在纵向开展的剑桥青少年犯罪发展研究过程中，前瞻性地收集了8岁男孩的受伤和疾病数据。
到48岁时，在两个特定的健康结果方面，犯罪轨迹彼此之间存在显著差异：登记为残疾和住院治疗。高频率慢性犯罪者在这两个结果方面的风险最高。逻辑回归模型排除了犯罪的儿童时期个人或环境风险因素作为健康问题可能的共同原因。
研究结果表明，高频率慢性犯罪本身可能会导致住院治疗和登记为残疾。我们对这一特定感兴趣群体规模较小给研究带来的局限性表示一定的谨慎态度，但建议这些研究结果可能表明，健康、社会服务和刑事司法系统等可能涉及这类人群的各机构有必要按照公共卫生模式共同努力，专注于提高在具有终生持续犯罪高风险的亚群体中将犯罪限制在青春期的可能性。
