Mulder Eva, Brand Eddy, Bullens Ruud, Van Marle Hjalmar
Department of Psychiatry, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Crim Behav Ment Health. 2010 Feb;20(1):23-38. doi: 10.1002/cbm.754.
There has been a lot of research on risk factors for recidivism among juvenile offenders, in general, and on individual risk factors, but less focus on subgroups of serious juvenile offenders and prediction of recidivism within these.
To find an optimal classification of risk items and to test the predictive value of the resultant factors with respect to severity of recidivism among serious juvenile offenders.
Seventy static and dynamic risk factors in 1154 juvenile offenders were registered with the Juvenile Forensic Profile. Recidivism data were collected on 728 of these offenders with a time at risk of at least 2 years. After factor analysis, independent sample t-tests were used to indicate differences between recidivists and non-recidivists. Logistic multiple linear regression analyses were used to test the potential predictive value of the factors for violent or serious recidivism.
A nine-factor solution best accounted for the data. The factors were: antisocial behaviour during treatment, sexual problems, family problems, axis-1 psychopathology, offence characteristics, conscience and empathy, intellectual and social capacities, social network, and substance abuse. Regression analysis showed that the factors antisocial behaviour during treatment, family problems and axis-1 psychopathology were associated with seriousness of recidivism.
The significance of family problems and antisocial behaviour during treatments suggest that specific attention to these factors may be important in reducing recidivism. The fact that antisocial behaviour during treatment consists mainly of dynamic risk factors is hopeful as these can be influenced by treatment. Consideration of young offenders by subgroup rather than as a homogenous population is likely to yield the best information about risk of serious re-offending and the management of that risk.
总体而言，针对青少年罪犯再犯的风险因素以及个体风险因素已有大量研究，但较少关注严重青少年罪犯亚组以及这些亚组内再犯的预测。
找到风险项目的最佳分类，并检验所得因素对严重青少年罪犯再犯严重程度的预测价值。
通过青少年法医档案记录了1154名青少年罪犯的70个静态和动态风险因素。收集了其中728名罪犯的再犯数据，这些罪犯的风险期至少为2年。经过因素分析后，使用独立样本t检验来表明再犯者与非再犯者之间的差异。采用逻辑多元线性回归分析来检验这些因素对暴力或严重再犯的潜在预测价值。
一个九因素解决方案最能解释数据。这些因素包括：治疗期间的反社会行为、性问题、家庭问题、轴I精神病理学、犯罪特征、良知与同理心、智力与社交能力、社会网络以及药物滥用。回归分析表明，治疗期间的反社会行为、家庭问题和轴I精神病理学与再犯的严重程度相关。
家庭问题和治疗期间反社会行为的重要性表明，对这些因素给予特别关注可能对减少再犯很重要。治疗期间的反社会行为主要由动态风险因素组成，这一事实令人充满希望，因为这些因素可以通过治疗得到影响。按亚组而非将年轻罪犯视为同质群体来考虑，可能会产生有关严重再犯风险及该风险管理的最佳信息。
