School of the Environment, University of Dundee, Dundee DD1 4HN, Scotland, UK.
Science. 2011 Apr 1;332(6025):53-8. doi: 10.1126/science.1200303.
Climate change is predicted to become a major threat to biodiversity in the 21st century, but accurate predictions and effective solutions have proved difficult to formulate. Alarming predictions have come from a rather narrow methodological base, but a new, integrated science of climate-change biodiversity assessment is emerging, based on multiple sources and approaches. Drawing on evidence from paleoecological observations, recent phenological and microevolutionary responses, experiments, and computational models, we review the insights that different approaches bring to anticipating and managing the biodiversity consequences of climate change, including the extent of species' natural resilience. We introduce a framework that uses information from different sources to identify vulnerability and to support the design of conservation responses. Although much of the information reviewed is on species, our framework and conclusions are also applicable to ecosystems, habitats, ecological communities, and genetic diversity, whether terrestrial, marine, or fresh water.
气候变化预计将成为 21 世纪生物多样性的主要威胁，但准确的预测和有效的解决方案一直难以制定。令人震惊的预测来自一个相当狭隘的方法论基础，但一种新的、综合的气候变化生物多样性评估科学正在出现，它基于多种来源和方法。本研究基于古生态学观察、最近的物候和微观进化响应、实验和计算模型，回顾了不同方法在预测和管理气候变化对生物多样性的影响方面带来的见解，包括物种自然恢复力的程度。我们引入了一个框架，该框架利用不同来源的信息来识别脆弱性并支持保护对策的设计。虽然审查的大部分信息是关于物种的，但我们的框架和结论也适用于陆地、海洋或淡水生态系统、生境、生态群落和遗传多样性。
